Analysis Report: MTG's Stock Trades & Impact on ADP/PAYX

On November 22, 2025 (EST), a Reddit post claimed Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG) is resigning and recently bought $30,001–$100,000 in aggregate of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Paychex (PAYX) stock 10 days prior. Verified sources confirm MTG disclosed purchasing $15,001–$50,000 each of ADP and PAYX on November 12, 2025, with the filing submitted November 13 [1]. Both stocks were at 52-week lows at the time of purchase [3][4]. The Reddit discussion included mixed sentiment: bearish views cited recession concerns (job cuts impacting payroll-dependent stocks), while bullish arguments noted businesses may outsource payroll to cut costs.

: No official sources (e.g., finbold, MarketBeat) confirm MTG’s resignation—this requires verification [1-4].

• Price Movements
  : On November 22, ADP rose +1.63% to $253.12, and PAYX jumped +2.77% to $111.46 [0]. PAYX’s volume (4.23M) was 145% of its average, indicating heightened activity [0].
• Post-Trade Performance
  : Since MTG’s November 12 purchase:
  • ADP: Slight decline from $254.55 to $253.12 (-0.56%) [0].
  • PAYX: Modest gain from $111.08 to $111.46 (+0.34%) [0].

Analyst consensus targets suggest upside potential:

• ADP: Consensus target of $289.00 (+14.2% from current price) [0].
• PAYX: Consensus target of $140.00 (+25.6%) [0].

The Reddit discussion reflects mixed views:

• Bearish
  : Recession concerns (job cuts reducing payroll processing volume).
• Bullish
  : Businesses may outsource payroll to cut costs (benefiting ADP/PAYX).

Metric	ADP	PAYX
ROE	70.42%	39.99%
Net Profit Margin	19.79%	27.86%
P/E Ratio	~25x	~25x
YTD Performance	-12.61%	-19.52%

Source: [0]

Both stocks trade at similar P/E ratios (~25x) and are undervalued relative to analyst targets [0].

• Directly Impacted
  : ADP (NASDAQ:ADP), PAYX (NASDAQ:PAYX).
• Sector
  : Staffing & Employment Services [0].

1. Resignation Verification
   : Confirm if MTG is indeed resigning (no official sources mention this) [1-4].
2. Trade Rationale
   : Clarify why MTG’s portfolio manager chose these stocks at 52-week lows [3][4].
3. Recession Impact
   : Analyze how job cuts would affect ADP/PAYX’s revenue streams (e.g., reduced payroll processing volume).

1. Regulatory Scrutiny
   : MTG’s trades are under scrutiny due to her committee oversight (House Homeland Security/Oversight) of sectors related to ADP/PAYX (workforce security, data protection). This may lead to investigations or negative sentiment [1].
2. Recession Risk
   : A recession-induced job cuts could reduce payroll processing volume, impacting ADP/PAYX revenue.
3. Volatility
   : Recent price gains may be driven by news of MTG’s trades—monitor volume and trends for sustainability [0].

:

• Official confirmation of MTG’s resignation.
• Recession indicators (e.g., jobless claims) affecting payroll demand.
• Regulatory updates on MTG’s trades.

Note: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
All data retrieved as of November 22, 2025 (UTC).