Investment Differentiation in the Power Industry: Thermal Power Profit Recovery and New Energy Consumption Challenges
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- No substantial obstacles to new energy consumption; the fluctuation in hours stems from the gap between planned and actual targets; the on-grid hours of new projects exceeding 3000 have been verified[^4].
- Thermal power: Electricity volume continues to decline (reaching 3000 hours/4.5-5 trillion kWh by 2035), but per-kilowatt-hour profit rebounds; northern power plants lead in improvement, southern ones bottom out and rebound, and Inner Mongolia’s policies are uncertain[^4].
- New energy: Actual power generation costs have hit the bottom; Document No.136 eliminates the risk of IRR differences; the IRR of new projects (about 6.5%) is guaranteed[^4].
- New Energy Consumption Challenges: Actual utilization hours are far below 3000 hours (wind power is expected to reach 2000 hours and photovoltaics 1350 hours by 2030), and consumption capacity has become a constraint[^1][2].
- Photovoltaic Overcapacity: In Q1 2025, 31 A-share photovoltaic enterprises had a net loss of 12.58 billion yuan, reflecting supply-demand imbalance[^2].
- Thermal Power Profit Recovery: Document No.136 promotes the increase of on-grid electricity prices, and per-kilowatt-hour profit has improved significantly[^2].
- New Energy IRR: Generally maintained at around 6.5%, lower than historical levels, with regional differences ranging from 6.5% to 13%[^3][2].
- Alignment Points: Thermal power’s per-kilowatt-hour profit recovery, new energy new projects’ IRR of about 6.5% (agreed by both sides)[^2][4].
- Contradiction Points: Xueqiu post believes there are no substantial obstacles to consumption, while research shows that actual hours are low and consumption capacity restricts development[^1][4].
- Impact: Power investment differentiation is obvious; it is necessary to distinguish between thermal power and new energy sub-sectors.
- Opportunities: Targets in thermal power (profit recovery) and new energy (stable IRR and electricity volume growth)[^2][4].
- Risks: Photovoltaic overcapacity, uncertainty in Inner Mongolia’s thermal power policies, insufficient new energy consumption capacity[^1][2][4].
Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About us: Ginlix AI is the AI Investment Copilot powered by real data, bridging advanced AI with professional financial databases to provide verifiable, truth-based answers. Please use the chat box below to ask any financial question.
