2025 Real Estate Stock Investment Opportunities: Allocation Strategy Amid Valuation Depression and Policy Easing

A post from a Xueqiu user points out that their current real estate stock position accounts for 40%, and they plan to increase it to 80% in Q1 2026, with the remaining allocation to CSI 300 ETF and Chinese concept internet ETF. The core logic includes: 1) Limited room for adjustment in the real estate market, increasing expectations of policy easing, with sales expected to stabilize in 2026 and prices to grow moderately in 2027; 2) Some property enterprises (e.g., China Jinmao, Yuexiu Property) show significant performance resilience, the industry has an obvious valuation depression (total market capitalization less than 1 trillion yuan vs. annual sales of over 8 trillion yuan), A-share leaders (Poly, China Merchants, Vanke A) are undervalued and await reversal, while Hong Kong-listed leaders have already recorded gains; 3) No suitable ETFs are available (no real estate ETFs in Hong Kong, A-share ETFs include non-core targets), so they selected leading enterprises from mainland China and Hong Kong as well as KE Holdings (Beike).

Analyst reports show: 1) Market level: From January to August 2025, real estate investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, but the decline in commercial residential property prices narrowed in August, with a clear trend of stopping falling and stabilizing [1]; 2) Policy level: Purchase restrictions were eased outside Shanghai’s outer ring road, public housing fund new policies were intensified, and industry bond financing in October increased by 76.9% year-on-year (central and state-owned enterprises actively issued bonds) [2]; 3) Valuation level: Poly Development’s price-to-book ratio (PB) was 0.48x, and leading enterprises like Vanke A generally had PB ratios below 1x, at historical lows [4][6]; 4) Performance level: The top 100 property enterprises’ sales exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan in the first 8 months; industry revenue was under pressure in Q3 but differentiation was obvious—property enterprises with land reserves in core cities and stable financials showed strong resilience [7].

The two views are highly consistent: both recognize the increased policy support, industry valuation depression, and differentiation trend among property enterprises. The user’s judgment that “adjustment space is limited” is confirmed by the research conclusions of “prices stopping falling and stabilizing” and “policy easing”; the “valuation depression” is supported by the low PB data of leaders like Poly and Vanke. Hong Kong-listed leaders have already risen, while A-share leaders are still undervalued, presenting reversal opportunities.

: Sustained policy easing drives valuation repair; low-PB leaders (Poly, Vanke) and core city property enterprises (Jinmao, Greentown) have upside potential; high-quality enterprises will gain market share after industry consolidation.
: The market adjustment cycle may be extended; liquidity risks of some small and medium-sized property enterprises have not been fully released; policy effects may fall short of expectations.