MSTR Investment Loss Analysis: Reddit User's LEAPS Experience & Market Context

2025-11-23 05:54 EST

A Reddit post on r/wallstreetbets details an investor’s 20-month hold of MSTR LEAPS, growing from $80k to $740k before declining to $1k due to lack of exit strategy. Discussion points include empathy for conviction, criticism of risk management, concerns about MSTR’s market collateral impact, and encouragement for better risk practices.

• MSTR’s 30-day drop of 44.4% aligns with Bitcoin’s decline from ~$94k (Nov17) to ~$86k (Nov23) [0,2]. As a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, MSTR’s price movements are amplified [4].
• Analyst consensus (55.2% Buy, $517 target) disconnects from current price ($170.50), reflecting market skepticism [0].

• MSTR’s recent preferred stock issuance (10% interest) increases capital costs amid falling Bitcoin values [5].

Metric	Value	Citation
MSTR Current Price	$170.50	[0]
30-Day Change	-44.4%	[0]
Bitcoin Price (Nov23)	~$86k	[2]
MSTR Bitcoin Holdings	649,870 BTC	[1]
Average BTC Cost	~$74k	[3]
Current Ratio	0.66	[0]

• Direct: MSTR
• Related: Crypto equities (Marathon Digital), Technology (MSTR’s software), Financial Services (potential collateral impact).

1. Bitcoin Price Risk: Below $74k average cost may trigger MSTR write-downs/margin calls [3].
2. Leverage Pressure: 10% preferred stock interest adds financial burden [5].
3. Liquidity Risk: Current ratio 0.66 indicates short-term obligation concerns [0].
4. Market Sentiment: Analyst-target disconnect signals near-term volatility [0].

The event underscores critical risk management lessons (exit plans, stop losses). MSTR’s performance is tightly linked to Bitcoin; investors should monitor Bitcoin’s $74k support level and MSTR’s liquidity position.