Loop Capital's $8.5T Nvidia Target Faces Reddit Skepticism Amid AI Golden Wave Thesis

Reddit sentiment toward Loop Capital’s $8.5 trillion Nvidia target is predominantly skeptical, with users dismissing the valuation as unrealistic and questioning the firm’s credibility. Key concerns include:

• Scale concerns
  : Users note that $8.5T would represent “adding another Microsoft-sized market cap” and constitute “a quarter of US GDP” [Reddit]
• Analyst credibility
  : Multiple users question Loop Capital’s track record and the feasibility of such projections [Reddit]
• Valuation fatigue
  : Some commenters sarcastically reference even higher targets ($15T, $25T) to illustrate perceived absurdity [Reddit]
• Contrarian view
  : A minority of users suggest the target might be achievable, citing past skepticism at lower market caps that ultimately proved wrong [Reddit]

Loop Capital’s bullish thesis is grounded in specific operational metrics and market dynamics:

• Price target increase
  : Raised from $250 to $350, representing 73% upside and implying $8.5T market cap [Source 1][Source 2]
• Blackwell GPU ramp
  : Production expected to double unit shipments to 2.1 million GPUs by January 2026 quarter [Source 2][Source 6]
• ASP expansion
  : Average selling prices projected to increase alongside volume growth [Source 2]
• Order backlog
  : $500+ billion in confirmed Blackwell and Rubin orders through 2026 [Source 2][Source 6]
• Extended outlook
  : Loop believes $400 price target is ultimately achievable for 2027 [Source 1]
• Market thesis
  : “Golden Wave” represents next phase of Gen AI adoption beyond hyperscale data centers [Source 2]

The analysis reveals a significant disconnect between Wall Street fundamentals and retail sentiment. While Reddit focuses on the seemingly astronomical scale of $8.5T (roughly 25% of US GDP), Loop Capital’s thesis is supported by concrete operational metrics including doubled GPU shipments, expanding ASPs, and $500B in confirmed orders. The skepticism appears rooted in valuation fatigue rather than questioning the underlying AI demand drivers. However, the sheer scale of the target does raise legitimate questions about market capacity and execution risk, particularly given the compressed timeline for doubling shipments.

• Strong order backlog provides revenue visibility through 2026
• Blackwell GPU ramp could drive both volume and pricing power
• Early positioning in next-gen AI infrastructure beyond hyperscale customers

• Execution risk on aggressive 12-15 month shipment doubling timeline
• Market saturation concerns at extreme valuation levels
• Potential for AI demand slowdown or competitive pressures
• Regulatory scrutiny at unprecedented market capitalization levels