Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Holiday-Shortened Thanksgiving Week (2025)

This analysis is based on the Barrons report [1] and Morningstar’s MarketWatch article [2] about rising US stock futures ahead of the 2025 Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week. As of late Sunday (Nov 23), Dow futures gained 0.2%, S&P 500 futures 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures 0.6% [2]. The previous week saw the Nasdaq drop 2.7% (third straight weekly loss) amid AI sector concerns, while the Dow and S&P 500 fell ~1.9% [2].

Sector performance from Nov 21 (latest available data [0]) showed healthcare leading (+1.73%) and utilities lagging (-0.89%). Retail stocks like Kohl’s (KSS), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Best Buy (BBY) are in focus as they report earnings this week [2].

1. Bitcoin as Leading Indicator
   : The weekend bitcoin rally (+4% before retracement) may boost stock sentiment, as it has acted as a leading indicator recently [2].
2. Data Reliance Shift
   : Due to the government shutdown, market performance will heavily depend on anecdotal retail sales data instead of official economic reports [2].
3. AI Sector Impact
   : Concerns over AI overvaluation contributed to the Nasdaq’s 2.7% drop last week, highlighting sector-specific risks [2].

• Lighter trading volume during the holiday week could increase volatility [0].
• AI sector overvaluation fears may continue to pressure tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq [2].
• Limited economic data due to the shutdown reduces visibility into broader market trends [2].

• Strong Black Friday sales could drive gains in retail stocks (KSS, DKS, BBY) [2].
• A sustained bitcoin rally may spill over into risk assets [2].

• Futures Performance
  : Dow (+0.2%), S&P500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq (+0.6%) as of Nov23 [2].
• Index Data (Nov21)
  : S&P500 (+0.72%), Nasdaq (+0.50%), Dow (+0.95%) [0].
• Affected Sectors
  : Healthcare (outperformer), Utilities (underperformer) [0].
• Key Stocks
  : KSS, DKS, BBY, WOOF, URBN [2].
• Factors to Monitor
  : Black Friday sales, retail earnings, bitcoin trends, Fed rate hints [2]