Market Analysis: Nvidia Earnings Impact, Rate Cut Expectations, and Sector Rotation (Nov 17-21, 2025)

The week of Nov 17-21, 2025 was defined by three key developments:

1. Nvidia’s strong Q3 earnings
   : The company reported record revenue but saw its stock decline post-announcement [0][2].
2. Fed rate cut expectations
   : Probability of a 25bp December rate cut rose from <50% to 71% [4], lifting indices on the week’s final day [1].
3. Berkshire Hathaway’s new Google stake
   : The conglomerate disclosed a $4.3B position in Alphabet (Google) in Q3, which grew to ~$4.9B by mid-November [5].

A Reddit recap highlighted these events alongside a 1.95% drop in the S&P 500 (partially offset by the final-day rally) and optimism for the Nasdaq [user-provided event].

• Nvidia’s post-earnings reaction
  : Despite beating revenue expectations (Q3: $35.1B, up 94% YoY [0]), Nvidia’s stock fell 7.81% on Nov 20 (earnings day) and 4.14% over the week [2]. This disconnect suggests investor concerns about gross margin compression from the Blackwell product ramp [0] or profit taking.
• Index performance
  : The S&P 500 gained 0.72% on Nov 21 (driven by rate cut hopes) but ended the week down 1.04% (from 6672.42 to 6602.98 [1]).
• Sector rotation
  : Healthcare (+1.73%) and Industrials (+1.52%) led gains on Nov 21, while Technology lagged (+0.146%) [3], indicating a shift away from high-growth tech stocks.
• Berkshire’s stake impact
  : Alphabet’s stock rose 3.5% on Nov 21 [5], likely supported by Berkshire’s investment.

1. Nvidia’s financial metrics
   :
   • Q3 revenue: $35.1B (17% sequential, 94% YoY growth) [0].
   • Data Center revenue: $30.8B (112% YoY, driven by H200 demand) [0].
   • Gross margin outlook: Expected to drop to low 70s (from current 75% non-GAAP) as Blackwell ramps [0].

2. Market indices
   :
   • S&P 500 weekly change: -1.04% [1].
   • Nvidia weekly change: -4.14% [2].

3. Rate cut & investment trends
   :
   • Fed rate cut probability (Dec): 71% [4].
   • Berkshire’s Google stake: $4.3B (Q3 end) → ~$4.9B (Nov 18) [5].

Unresolved questions to investigate:

1. Nvidia’s stock decline
   : Why did the stock drop despite strong earnings? Possible factors: gross margin concerns [0], supply chain constraints, or competitive pressures (e.g., AMD’s MI300X).
2. Trump’s tariff moves
   : The Reddit post mentions tariff actions, but no details are available. These could impact trade-sensitive sectors.
3. Venezuela conflict
   : Low-score discussion in Reddit about a potential conflict requires verification (geopolitical risk to energy prices).

Decision-makers should cross-reference these gaps with additional data (e.g., AMD’s earnings, tariff announcements) to form a complete view.

1. Nvidia’s margin compression
   : The expected drop in gross margin to low 70s [0] may reduce short-term profitability. Users should monitor Blackwell’s ramp progress and yield improvements.
2. Rate cut dependency
   : The Nov 21 rally is tied to Fed rate cut hopes. If the Fed holds rates steady in December, markets could pull back.
3. Geopolitical risks
   : Potential Venezuela conflict (mentioned in Reddit) could disrupt energy supplies, impacting oil prices and related sectors.
4. Tech sector rotation
   : Healthcare and Industrials outperforming Tech [3] suggests a shift to defensive stocks—monitor this trend for sustained market direction.

Key metrics to track: Nvidia’s gross margin in Q4, Fed meeting minutes (Dec), and energy sector performance.

[0] Nvidia Q3 2025 Earnings Transcript
[1] S&P 500 Daily Prices (Nov17-21,2025)
[2] Nvidia Daily Prices (Nov17-21,2025)
[3] Sector Performance (Nov21,2025)
[4] Fed Rate Cut Probability Web Search Results
[5] Berkshire Hathaway Google Stake Web Search Results