Bessent's 2026 No-Recession Outlook & Market Impact Analysis (Nov 23,2025)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s assertion that the U.S. will avoid a recession in 2026, despite ongoing challenges in housing and interest-sensitive sectors, shaped market sentiment on November 23, 2025. Healthcare led sector gains (+1.73%) that day, while utilities (-0.89%) lagged, reflecting a mix of policy optimism and sector-specific headwinds [0][1].

• Sector Performance
  : On November 23,2025, Healthcare (+1.73%) was the top-performing sector, followed by Industrials (+1.52%) and Basic Materials (+1.39%). Utilities (-0.89%) were the only sector in decline, with all others posting positive returns [0].
• Indices
  : No data was available for major U.S. indices (S&P500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones) for the specified date [0].
• Notable Movers
  : No specific stock mover data was available for the period analyzed [0].

1. Bessent’s 2026 Economic Outlook
   : Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the U.S. will not enter a recession in2026, citing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (permanent tax cuts, senior Social Security bonuses, etc.) and upcoming healthcare cost reductions as growth drivers [1]. His3-3-3 plan targets3% real GDP growth, a3% budget deficit, and a3 million barrels per day increase in oil production [6].
2. Housing Sector Challenges
   : October2025 existing home sales stood at4.1 million units (median price $415.2k, +2.1% YoY), with Zillow forecasting2025 total existing home sales at4.07 million (a slight increase from2024) [2][3]. Inventory was up16% YoY but active inventory fell1.7% recently [3].
3. Policy Impacts
   : Bessent highlighted upcoming tax refunds in Q12026 from the new tax law, while energy prices dropped in October [5]. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” includes tax breaks for auto loans, overtime pay, and tip income [1].
4. White House Comments
   : White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett noted Q42025 data may show weakness due to the43-day government shutdown but predicted2026 would be a “blockbuster year” [1][4].

• Upcoming Data
  : November2025 existing home sales data will be released on December19,2025 [2].
• Policy Announcements
  : The Trump administration is expected to announce healthcare cost reduction measures this week [1].
• Key Monitoring Points
  : Q42025 economic data (impacted by the shutdown), progress on Bessent’s3-3-3 plan, and implementation of tax law provisions in Q12026 [1][5][6].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] CNBC, “Bessent: No recession in 2026 but some sectors are challenged”, 2025-11-23, URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/bessent-economy-no-recession-2026.html
[2] National Association of REALTORS®, “Existing-Home Sales”, URL: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
[3] Zillow, “Zillow Home Value and Home Sales Forecast (November2025)”, URL: https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-33822/
[4] NBC News, “Treasury secretary says there won’t be a recession in2026”, URL: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/treasury-secretary-bessent-us-wont-enter-recession-2026-economy-rcna245411
[5] Reuters, “No recession risk for US economy as a whole after $11 …”, URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/no-recession-risk-us-economy-whole-bessent-tells-nbc-2025-11-23/
[6] EFG International, “Outlook2026”, URL: https://www.efginternational.com/doc/jcr:fe501ea9-6402-4991-b855-81216e51b4b3/lang:en/EFG_Outlook_2026_EN.pdf

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: This analysis provides information gathering and market context to support decision-making. It is NOT investment advice, trading recommendations, or financial guidance. The goal is to present factual information, market context, and risk identification to help users make informed decisions.

Time of Analysis

: November 24,2025 at 10:53 UTC

Data Cutoff

: November23,2025

Sources

: As listed in the References section above.

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