CoreWeave (CRWV) 2031 Bond Yield Analysis Report

2025-11-24 (EST) | 2025-11-24

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A Reddit discussion focused on CoreWeave Inc.’s (CRWV) 2031 bonds, which were reported to have an ~11.5% yield (triple-C rated) with a 350 bps spike in two months. The post noted CoreWeave’s data center delays leading to a 46% share drop in November, though the stock was up 79% since its IPO. This aligns with market data showing CRWV stock fell 43.63% between October 24 and November 21, 2025 [0].

Key claims from the discussion:

• Bearish views: High default risk due to losses (~$1B annual loss on <$3.5B revenue), competition with Google, and “junk status” bonds.
• Neutral context: Bonds are senior unsecured, with 11.5% annual yield until maturity (2031) if no default occurs.

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• Stock Performance:
  CRWV dropped 45.94% in one month (as of Nov 24) [0], reflecting investor concern over the company’s financial health and bond yield spike.
• Bond Market:
  The 350 bps yield spike indicates increased perceived default risk, raising CoreWeave’s cost of capital for future financing [6].

• Cost of Capital:
  Higher bond yields may limit CoreWeave’s ability to raise debt at favorable terms, affecting expansion plans (e.g., data center builds).
• Sentiment:
  Mixed—ARK Investment (Cathie Wood) bought 350k CRWV shares amid the dip [3], while others remain cautious due to negative profitability [4].

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Metric	Value	Source
Net Profit Margin	-22.32%	[0]
Return on Equity	-42.82%	[0]
Current Ratio	0.52	[0]
Total Debt (Dec2024)	$8B	[2]

• Issuance:
  $1.75B 2031 senior unsecured notes (upsized from $1.5B) [2][5].
• Coupon:
  9% |
  Yield:
  ~11.5% (due to price decline) [6][5].
• Ratings:
  Fitch BB- [1], Moody’s B1 [2] (conflict with Reddit’s triple-C claim).

• 1-Month Change:
  -45.94% |
  YTD:
  +79.12% [0].
• Volatility:
  Daily standard deviation of 4.89% (Oct24-Nov21) [0].

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• Direct:
  CRWV common stock (NASDAQ: CRWV) and its 2031 senior notes.
• Related Sectors:
  AI infrastructure, cloud computing, data center industry.
• Supply Chain:
  • Upstream: NVIDIA (NVDA, GPU supplier).
  • Downstream: AI startups/enterprises using CoreWeave’s cloud services.

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1. Rating Discrepancy:
   Clarify if the bond in question is a different issuance (Reddit’s triple-C vs Fitch’s BB-).
2. Yield Spike Cause:
   Exact drivers beyond data center delays (e.g., earnings misses, regulatory changes).
3. Updated Debt:
   Post-2024 debt levels and interest coverage ratio.

• Bull Case:
  High yield may attract risk-tolerant investors; AI infrastructure demand remains strong [4].
• Bear Case:
  Negative profitability and low liquidity (current ratio <1) raise default risks [0][2].

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• Liquidity Risk:
  Current ratio of 0.52 indicates potential difficulty meeting short-term obligations [0].
• Default Risk:
  Negative net profit margin (-22.32%) and high debt ($8B) may impact debt servicing [0][2].
• Volatility:
  CRWV’s 4.89% daily volatility increases portfolio risk [0].

• Users should be aware that CoreWeave’s negative profitability and low liquidity may significantly impact its ability to service debt [0][2].
• The bond yield spike and stock drop signal market concerns about the company’s long-term viability [6][0].

1. Earnings Reports:
   Q3 2025 results (due soon) for updated profitability data.
2. Bond Ratings:
   Changes from Fitch/Moody’s to resolve the triple-C vs BB- discrepancy.
3. Data Center Progress:
   Delays in builds may further erode investor confidence [6].

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[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (Company Overview & Stock Data).
[1] Fitch Ratings - CoreWeave Inc. Credit Ratings (https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/coreweave-inc-97744349).
[2] Yahoo Finance - CoreWeave Shares Climb on $1.5B Debt Offering (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coreweave-shares-climb-1-5-165510758.html).
[3] Gurufocus - ARK Investment Acquires 350K CRWV Shares (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3221166/ark-investment-acquires-350k-shares-of-coreweave-crwv).
[4] Fool.com - Most Undervalued AI Stock (https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/23/this-could-be-most-undervalued-ai-stock-into-2026/).
[5] Cbonds - CoreWeave 9% 2031 Notes (https://cbonds.com/bonds/1899761/).
[6] Reddit Discussion - CoreWeave 2031 bonds paying 11.5% (2025-11-24).

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This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making decisions.