Tesla Stock Pop Analysis: Melius Upgrade vs Bearish Concerns on FSD, Earnings, and Delays

On November 24, 2025, Tesla (TSLA) stock closed at $417.78, up 6.82%, following Melius Research’s upgrade labeling it a ‘must own’ for Full Self-Driving (FSD) and AI chip progress [1]. CEO Elon Musk reinforced this by noting Tesla’s AI chip team deployed millions of chips [1]. However, Reddit users raised bearish concerns: FSD overhyped vs Waymo [6], declining earnings [4], project delays [3], and the pop being based on dubious news [6].

Internal data [0] and external reports [2-5] support some bearish claims: Q3 2025 EPS missed estimates (50c vs expected53c) and dropped30.6% YoY [4]. Waymo leads robotaxi deployment (250k paid trips/week) with better safety stats (7 collisions/100k rides) vs Tesla’s FSD (higher disengagement rates) [2]. Tesla delayed Robotaxi rollout to select cities and Optimus production to2026 [3].

Cross-domain correlations: Short-term market reaction to bullish calls contrasts with medium-term fundamentals (earnings decline, delays). The gap between Tesla’s autonomy hype and Waymo’s actual progress is a recurring theme [2,6]. Reddit users noted repetitive autonomy/AI hype [6], aligning with Tesla’s delayed projects [3].

1. Earnings Decline
   : Q3 EPS drop of30.6% YoY raises profitability concerns [4]. Users should monitor this trend.
2. Execution Risks
   : Delays in Robotaxi and Optimus highlight delivery challenges [3].
3. Competitive Pressure
   : Waymo’s lead in robotaxi safety and scale may erode Tesla’s market share [2].
4. Sales Volatility
   : Declines in China/Europe threaten near-term growth [5].

• Long-term AI/autonomy potential: Melius’ upgrade reflects confidence in FSD and AI chips as drivers [1].
• Value unlock if Tesla accelerates FSD adoption and meets revised project timelines [1,3].

Tesla’s 6.82% pop was driven by Melius’ upgrade and Musk’s comments [1,0]. Bearish factors: Q3 EPS down30% YoY [4], FSD lag vs Waymo [2], project delays [3], and repetitive hype [6]. Critical metrics to monitor: FSD adoption, Robotaxi progress, Q4 sales, Optimus updates.