NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 2025 Results & Mixed Market Sentiment Analysis

On November 23, 2025 (EST), a Reddit discussion analyzed NVIDIA’s Q3 FY26 results with mixed sentiment [4]. The post claimed NVDA reported $57.0B revenue (up62% YoY), $31.9B net income, and Q4’25 guidance of $65B ±2% revenue—

(official revenue: $35.1B) [0,4]. Key arguments included:

• Bearish
  : Macro factors (inflation/jobs data impacting GPU demand), customer concentration risk (33B from4 customers), overvaluation with potential accounting issues [4].
• Bullish
  : Long-term profitability outlook, AI growth, and analyst price targets of $220-$250/share [4].

Official earnings data highlighted record revenue ($35.1B, up94% YoY), data center dominance ($30.8B, up112% YoY), and strong Blackwell demand (shipping more than initial estimates) [0].

• Short-term
  : NVDA dropped7.81% on November20 (post-earnings call date) to $180.64 with343.5M shares traded (2x5-day average volume) [1]. It further declined to $178.88 on Nov21, then partially recovered to $182.55 (up2.05% in1 day) [2].
• Medium-term
  : Analyst consensus remains bullish (target: $250, +36.9% from current price) [2].
• Sentiment
  : Mixed—short-term concerns about valuation/macro factors are balanced by long-term optimism about AI growth and Blackwell demand [0,2].

• Official Q32025 revenue: $35.1B (up17% sequential,94% YoY); data center revenue: $30.8B (up112% YoY) [0].
• FY2025 revenue breakdown: Data center (88.3%), Gaming (8.7%) [2].
• Net profit margin:53.01% [2].

• P/E ratio:44.77x; Market cap: $4.44T [2].
  -5-day return (Nov17-21):-1.21% [2].

-73.4% Buy ratings,20.3% Hold,3.8% Sell [2].

• Direct
  : NVIDIA (NVDA) [1,2].
• Sectors
  : Semiconductors (AMD, TSMC), Cloud Computing (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud), AI/ML infrastructure [3].
• Supply Chain
  : Upstream (TSMC for fabrication, SK Hynix/Micron for HBM); Downstream (cloud providers, AI startups, enterprise AI users) [0,3].

• Verify Reddit’s customer concentration claim (33B from4 customers) as official data does not explicitly state this [2].
• Resolve revenue discrepancy between Reddit ($57B) and official Q32025 ($35.1B) figures [0 vs 4].

• High Valuation
  : P/E ratio of44.77x (above historical semiconductor averages) [2].
• Competition
  : Hyperscalers’ custom chips (Google’s TPUs, Meta’s potential shift to Google chips) pose long-term market share risks [3].
• Unconfirmed Concentration
  : If Reddit’s customer concentration claim is true, it could lead to significant revenue loss if major clients reduce orders [4].

• Blackwell ramp progress (gross margin recovery to mid-70s) [0].
• Customer retention and concentration [4].
• Competition from hyperscalers’ custom chips [3].
• Macroeconomic indicators (inflation, interest rates) [4].