NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY26 Earnings & Mixed Market Sentiment Analysis

November 25, 2025
Reddit discussion (Nov 23, 2025 EST) & NVIDIA Q3 FY26 Earnings

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A Reddit discussion on November 23, 2025, highlighted mixed sentiment toward NVIDIA (NVDA) alongside the company’s Q3 FY26 earnings report. Key points include:

• Bearish Arguments
  : Macro factors (inflation/jobs data impacting GPU demand), customer concentration risk (33B revenue from 4 customers), overvaluation/accounting concerns.
• Bullish Arguments
  : Long-term profitability outlook, AI growth trajectory, stock pullback as part of market correction (not NVDA-specific).
• Earnings Context
  : NVIDIA reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $57.01B (up 62% YoY) with strong Data Center segment growth ($43.0B, +56% YoY) and Q4 guidance of $65B ±2% revenue [2].

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• Stock Performance
  : NVDA’s price declined 0.85% (Oct 23–Nov 21, 2025) from $180.42 to $178.88, with a high of $212.19 and low of $172.93 (volatility: 2.90% daily std dev) [1].
• Recent Recovery
  : The stock gained +2.05% in 1 day (as of Nov 25, 2025) [2], aligning with neutral/bullish arguments of market correction reversal.

• The Technology sector (NVDA’s primary sector) rose +2.085% on Nov 23, 2025, indicating broad positive sentiment for tech stocks [5].

• NVDA’s 6-month performance (+39.04%) and 1-year growth (+34.21%) reflect strong long-term investor confidence [2].

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• Market Cap
  : $4.44T [2]
• P/E Ratio
  : 44.77x (high relative to industry averages) [2]
• Net Profit Margin
  : 53.01% (strong profitability) [2]
• Revenue Breakdown
  : Data Center (88.3% of FY2025 revenue), Gaming (8.7%), Automotive (1.3%) [2]

• Blackwell Ramp
  : Full production with 13,000 GPU samples shipped; expected to drive future growth [0].
• H200 Demand
  : Fastest product ramp in company history, with double-digit billion sales [0].
• Gross Margin
  : Low 70s (71–72.5%) during Blackwell ramp, improving to mid-70s as production scales [0].

• Average Daily Volume
  : 210.88M shares [1]
• Volatility
  : 2.90% (daily std dev) [1]

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• Directly Impacted
  : NVIDIA (NVDA) [1,2]
• Related Sectors
  : Technology (up +2.085% on Nov23), Data Center (cloud providers like AWS/Azure), Gaming, Automotive [5,2]
• Supply Chain
  : Upstream (TSMC for chip manufacturing), downstream (AI startups, enterprise customers) [0]

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1. Customer Concentration
   : The claim of $33B revenue from 4 customers was not verified via search (unrelated results) [3].
2. Accounting Issues
   : No evidence of accounting irregularities in earnings transcripts or financial data [0,2].
3. Macro-GPU Link
   : No direct data linking cooling job growth/inflation to GPU demand [4].

• Bearish
  : High valuation (44.77x P/E) and macro risks (cooling job market) [2,4].
• Bullish
  : Strong AI growth (Blackwell/H200 demand) and dominant Data Center position [0,2].

• Blackwell adoption rate and revenue contribution.
• Data Center segment growth (88.3% of revenue).
• Macroeconomic indicators (interest rates, inflation).
• Customer retention in Data Center segment.

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1. Valuation Risk
   : NVDA’s high P/E ratio may make it sensitive to market corrections if macro conditions worsen [2].
2. Segment Concentration
   : Over-reliance on Data Center revenue exposes NVDA to demand fluctuations [2].
3. Macro Risks
   : Stagnant inflation-adjusted wages and cooling job growth may impact GPU spending [4].

: Users should note NVDA’s high valuation and segment concentration risks. Monitor Blackwell adoption and macroeconomic trends closely.

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: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making decisions.
: No investment recommendations or trading guidance provided.
: All data as of Nov25,2025