Comprehensive Analysis of Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) 2025 Performance, Challenges, and Long-Term Prospects

This analysis is based on information about Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) published on the East Money App Hot List (Hong Kong Stock Market Popularity List)[0], combined with external market data and industry reports[1][2][3]. In 2025, Ganfeng Lithium faces challenges such as falling lithium prices and industry overcapacity, but also benefits from capital attention brought by MSCI inclusion and long-term demand growth expectations. The most critical finding is the coexistence of short-term performance pressure and long-term development potential, with obvious divided market sentiment.

On November 24, 2025, Ganfeng Lithium’s H-shares were included in the MSCI China Index[0], causing significant stock price fluctuations: the inclusion news boosted the stock price to a sharp rise at one point, but then it fell back due to the overall market correction. Inclusion in the MSCI Index will attract passive tracking fund allocation, bringing incremental capital inflows to the company[0].

The price of lithium carbonate dropped from a high of nearly 600,000 RMB/ton in 2022 to approximately 60,000 RMB/ton in 2025[0], severely squeezing profit margins. The company’s gross profit margin decreased from 74.46% in 2022 to 40.94% in 2024[0]. The industry has entered the stage of head-to-head capacity competition; Ganfeng Lithium (130,000 tons of lithium salt scale) and Tianqi Lithium (117,800 tons) dominate, but oversupply has led to fierce price wars[0]. Institutions like Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating to “Sell” due to lithium price downside risks[0].

The company strengthened its integrated layout (resource mining → battery manufacturing → energy storage application); the Sichuan project commissioning drove fourth-quarter sales growth[0]. Projects like Goulamina increased its own LCE supply ratio to over 50%, reducing unit costs[0]. At the same time, it actively laid out solid-state battery technology to cope with cyclical fluctuations[0].

The company’s chairman predicted a 30-40% growth in lithium demand in 2026[2], pushing the lithium price up 9% to 95,200 RMB/ton (a 17-month high)[2], and the stock price rose 7.48% that day[0]. The market capitalization reached 136.09 billion HKD, making it one of the leaders in the Hong Kong lithium battery sector[1].

Cross-domain correlations show: The correlation between lithium price fluctuations and the company’s stock price elasticity is highly significant (the chairman’s prediction directly pushed up lithium prices and stock prices); integrated layout is the core strategy to cope with industry cycles; capital attention from MSCI inclusion and negative industry ratings form a short-term game. The deep implication is that leading enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain need to balance short-term performance and long-term technological innovation to cross cycles.

1. Sustained low lithium prices
   : Industry oversupply may lead to further declines in lithium prices[0];
2. Rating downgrade pressure
   : Negative ratings from external institutions affect market confidence[0];
3. Overcapacity competition
   : Price wars may further compress profit margins[0].

1. MSCI inclusion capital
   : Passive capital inflows provide short-term support[0];
2. Demand growth expectation
   : The 2026 demand growth forecast may drive lithium prices to rebound[2];
3. Cost control effectiveness
   : Commissioning of integrated projects reduces unit costs[0].

As a leader in the Hong Kong lithium battery sector, Ganfeng Lithium faces a situation where short-term performance pressure coexists with long-term development opportunities in 2025. Lithium price cyclical fluctuations and intensified industry competition are the main challenges, while MSCI inclusion, demand growth expectations, and integrated layout are key opportunities. Investors need to focus on lithium price trends, capacity decommissioning speed, and the company’s cost control effectiveness to evaluate its long-term investment value.