Analysis of Delayed September PPI & Retail Sales Data Impact (Nov 25, 2025)

On November 25, 2025, delayed September economic data was released due to a government shutdown [1]. Headline PPI rose 0.3% MoM (in line with estimates), while core PPI (excluding food/energy) increased only 0.1% MoM (below expected 0.2%) [1]. Retail sales grew 0.2% MoM (softer than forecasted), but ex-autos sales were up 0.3% MoM (in line) [1]. October CPI/PPI reports are canceled, with November CPI scheduled for Dec18 [1].

U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving, but pre-market/estimated data shows utilities (+3.22%) and tech (+2.09%) leading gains due to rate cut expectations [0]. Energy sector rose (+2.09%) but Exxon Mobil (XOM) fell (-0.95%) due to declining crude oil prices (~$58.27 on Nov25) [0,2]. Consumer defensive sector underperformed (-1.29%) [0].

1. Cooling core PPI signals reduced upstream inflation, supporting expectations of Fed rate cuts which benefit rate-sensitive (utilities) and growth (tech) sectors [0,1].
2. Energy sector performance is mixed: sector gains contrast with XOM’s decline, driven by oil price volatility [0,2].
3. Delayed economic data and canceled October reports increase market uncertainty, with full impact to be seen on Nov26 (Black Friday half-day) with potential low-volume volatility [0,1].

• Risks
  : Delayed data complicates economic assessment [1]; oil price fluctuations impact energy stocks [2]; low trading volume on Nov26 may amplify volatility [0].
• Opportunities
  : Rate-sensitive sectors (utilities) and growth sectors (tech) present potential upside amid cooling inflation [0].

• Core PPI: 0.1% MoM (below 0.2% estimate) [1].
• Retail sales: 0.2% MoM (below 0.3% estimate) [1].
• Stock performance: NextEra Energy (NEE) +0.90%, Apple (AAPL) +1.63%, XOM -0.95% [0].
• Oil price: ~$58.27 (Nov25) [2].