Analysis Report: Reddit Discussion on Gold vs. Defense Stocks as Investments

On November25,2025 (EST), a Reddit post argued gold has the “strongest bull case in modern history” due to the U.S. sovereign debt crisis (claiming $25.8T to refinance by2028 at higher rates) and upcoming inflationary melt-up. The OP recommended 10%+ portfolio allocation to physical gold (via PHYS ETF, avoiding GLD) and drew parallels to the 1970s market where gold outperformed stocks. Counterarguments included:

1. Defense stocks would outperform gold in a Taiwan invasion scenario;
2. The post was a “gold pump” in a stock subreddit;
3. China’s new gold discovery (1100 tonnes) might reduce its need to buy gold;
4. The 1929 crash recovery is not comparable to today’s market.

Source: Reddit post [2], China gold discovery [1]

• Gold ETFs
  : Positive momentum. PHYS (physical gold ETF) rose1.54% (Nov24) +0.11% (Nov25) = +1.65%. GLD (gold ETF) gained1.42% (Nov24) then flat (Nov25) = +1.42%. PHYS volume increased by47% (2.95M →4.34M shares) on Nov25 [0].
• Defense Stocks
  : Mixed performance. Northrop Grumman (NOC) +1.87% net gain, Raytheon (RTX) +1.98% net, Lockheed Martin (LMT) -1.78% net [0].

1. Gold ETF Performance
   : PHYS open $31.09 → close $31.64; GLD open $374.88 → close $380.27 [0].
2. China Gold Discovery
   : 1100 tonnes in Hunan Province, valued at $83B [1].

• Direct: PHYS, GLD, LMT, RTX, NOC
• Related Sectors: Precious metals, defense industry

• Unverified US debt refinance claim ($25.8T by2028)
• China’s gold demand post-discovery

1. Speculative Taiwan invasion scenario affects defense stock predictions.
2. Unverified data undermines gold bull case credibility.

• Unverified Data
  : The OP’s $25.8T US debt claim lacks Tier1 source confirmation.
• Geopolitical Risk
  : Taiwan invasion scenario is speculative, defense stock projections are uncertain.
• China’s Discovery
  : Long extraction timelines limit short-term gold price impact [1].