NVIDIA (NVDA) Mixed Sentiment Analysis: Q3 FY26 Earnings vs. Short-Term Risks

This analysis is based on a Reddit discussion [1] about NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Q3 FY26 earnings and mixed market sentiment. The Reddit post mentions strong Q3 FY26 results: $57.0B revenue (up62% YoY) and $31.9B net income, but notes the stock dropped to $178 despite these figures. Market data [0] shows NVDA’s stock declined 7.81% on Nov20,2025 and an additional1.30% on Nov21,2025, closing at $177.82 (down2.59% from previous close) as of the latest quote.

NVIDIA’s Q3 FY25 earnings (from internal data [0]) showed $35.1B revenue (up94% YoY) and $30.8B data center revenue (up112% YoY), but the Reddit post refers to Q3 FY26 figures which are not available in internal data [0]. The Blackwell AI chip ramp (mentioned in earnings transcript [0]) is expected to initially reduce gross margins to low70s before improving to mid70s, impacting near-term profitability.

1. Disconnect Between Earnings and Stock Performance
   : The Reddit post highlights a disconnect where strong earnings are met with stock declines, likely due to valuation concerns (P/E ratio of44.01 [0]) and short-term macro risks.
2. Cross-Domain Risk Links
   : Macro factors (inflation/jobs data [1]) could lead to higher interest rates, reducing demand for high-growth stocks like NVDA and impacting GPU purchases. Customer concentration risk (if verified [1]) links to revenue stability, as losing a major customer could significantly affect top-line growth.
3. Long-Term vs Short-Term Tension
   : Bullish long-term views (AI growth [1]) contrast with bearish short-term risks (valuation, macro), creating mixed sentiment.
4. Information Gaps
   : Critical gaps exist in verifying customer concentration ($33B from4 customers [1]), accounting issues (product giveaways listed as income [1]), and reconciling Q3 FY26 earnings with internal Q3 FY25 data [0].

• Valuation Risk
  : High P/E ratio (44.01 [0]) makes NVDA vulnerable to market corrections if earnings do not meet expectations.
• Gross Margin Risk
  : Blackwell’s initial low margins could pressure near-term profitability [0].
• Macro Risk
  : Strong inflation/jobs data may keep rates high, reducing demand for NVDA’s products [1].
• Customer Concentration Risk
  : Unverified claim of $33B from4 customers [1] poses a significant revenue risk if true.
• Accounting Risk
  : Potential accounting issues (if verified [1]) could lead to regulatory scrutiny.

• Long-Term AI Growth
  : Bullish views on NVDA’s AI market dominance and profitability outlook over the next decade [1].
• Blackwell Chip Potential
  : The Blackwell ramp, once stabilized, could drive higher margins and market share [0].

NVIDIA’s mixed sentiment stems from strong Q3 FY26 earnings (per Reddit [1]) versus short-term risks like valuation, macro factors, and customer concentration concerns. Internal data [0] provides Q3 FY25 figures but lacks Q3 FY26 details. Key metrics to monitor include Blackwell’s ramp progress, gross margin trends, upcoming inflation/jobs reports, and verification of customer concentration and accounting claims. Decision-makers should consider both short-term risks and long-term AI growth potential while addressing information gaps.