Shortened Thanksgiving Trading Week Impact on U.S. Stocks (2025)

The U.S. stock market entered a shortened Thanksgiving trading week (2025-11-23 to 2025-11-26) with significant focus on American consumer behavior amid recent market volatility. MarketWatch reported that the week’s performance hinged on consumer spending trends, as retailers prepared for Black Friday—the start of the critical holiday shopping season [10].

Major indices showed positive momentum during the Thanksgiving week:

• The S&P 500 rose +1.03% (2025-11-24) and +1.03% (2025-11-25), ending slightly down (-0.02%) on 2025-11-26 [0].
• The Consumer Cyclical sector (includes retail) was up +1.228% on 2025-11-22, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of Black Friday [1].

Forecasts are mixed:

• Positive: National Retail Federation (NRF) projects record $1 trillion in holiday sales (Nov-Dec 2025) and expects a record number of Thanksgiving weekend shoppers [9].
• Negative: Newsweek reports expectations of Black Friday spending falling for the first time in years, driven by affordability concerns [5].

November consumer confidence fell to its second-lowest level of the year due to inflation, tariffs, and the government shutdown [8]. However, upper-income shoppers are expected to support spending, while lower-income consumers may curb discretionary purchases [5,8].

• Financial Metrics
  : NRF forecasts $1 trillion in 2025 holiday sales; Deloitte expects Black Friday spending to decline [5,9].
• Price Movements
  : S&P 500 gained ~2% over 2025-11-24 to 2025-11-25 [0]; Consumer Cyclical sector up +1.23% (2025-11-22) [1].
• Volume
  : S&P 500 volume was 6.04B (2025-11-24) and 5.00B (2025-11-25, lower on Thanksgiving day) [0].
• Market Cap
  : Positive index movements suggest overall market cap growth during the week.

• Amazon (AMZN)
  : Black Friday deals on Garmin watches and Pixel phones; AWS re:Invent participation [2].
• Walmart (WMT)
  : AirPods 4 deals ($69); AI shopping agent Sparky’s sponsored prompts test [3].
• Target (TGT)
  : Warehouse preparation for Black Friday; $5B revitalization plan (new stores, loyalty program) [4].

• Consumer Cyclical (retail, up +1.23% [1]).
• Technology (AI shopping agents like WMT’s Sparky [3] and AMZN’s Rufus [3]).

Upstream suppliers: Garmin (AMZN deal [2]), Apple (WMT AirPods deal [3]), Little Tikes (TGT warehouse stocking [4]).

• Actual Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales data (current data is forecasts).
• Detailed impact of AI tools (Sparky, Rufus) on conversion rates.
• Regional variations in consumer spending.

• Positive
  : Record shopper numbers expected by NRF [9]; strong upper-income spending [5].
• Negative
  : Falling consumer confidence [8]; potential Black Friday spending decline [5].

• Users should be aware that November consumer confidence falling to its second-lowest level of the year may significantly impact discretionary spending [8].
• This development raises concerns about potential lower-than-expected Black Friday sales, which could affect retail stocks [5].
• Historical patterns suggest cautious consumer sentiment often leads to reduced non-essential spending—users should factor this into their analysis [8].

• Actual Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales figures.
• December consumer confidence trends.
• Adoption rates of AI shopping tools (Sparky, Rufus).
• Post-holiday retail earnings reports.

This report provides factual information and context—

. Users should conduct further research before making decisions.