Thanksgiving Week 2025: Consumer Impact on U.S. Stock Market

The shortened Thanksgiving week of 2025 was marked by conflicting consumer trends impacting the U.S. stock market. Major indices posted gains over the 30-day period ending November26: S&P500 (+1.85%), NASDAQ (+1.98%), Dow Jones (+2.46%) [0]. Sector performance reflected mixed consumer-related outcomes: Energy led gains (+1.77%), Consumer Defensive stocks rose (+1.31%), while Consumer Cyclical (tied to discretionary spending) declined slightly (-0.09%) [0]. This aligns with dual consumer signals: online sales increased7.5% YoY in the first23 days of November [1], yet consumer confidence dropped sharply to88.7 (from95.5 in October, lowest since April) [2][3].

1. Divergence in Consumer Behavior
   : The gap between strong online sales growth and falling consumer confidence suggests consumers may be spending despite economic concerns, warranting close monitoring.
2. Sector-Specific Trends
   : Consumer Defensive strength indicates resilience in essential spending, while Cyclical weakness points to caution in discretionary areas.
3. Holiday Sales Impact
   : Online sales gains benefit retailers (e.g., AMZN, WMT) and related sectors like logistics and BNPL services (up10.3% YoY) [1].

• Risks
  : The6.8-point drop in consumer confidence is a significant indicator of potential future spending slowdown [2][3]. Historical patterns link such declines to reduced discretionary spending in subsequent months.
• Opportunities
  : Online sales growth presents opportunities for e-commerce retailers and payment processors. Energy sector gains may continue amid ongoing market dynamics [0].

Key metrics to note:

• Indices: S&P500 (+1.85%), NASDAQ (+1.98%), Dow (+2.46%) [0].
• Consumer Data: Online sales up7.5% YoY [1], confidence down to 88.7 [2][3].
• Sectors: Energy (+1.77%), Consumer Defensive (+1.31%), Consumer Cyclical (-0.09%) [0].
  Conflicting trends (sales vs confidence) and sector performance are critical to monitor for future market movements.