Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK): Analysis of a Hot Hong Kong Stock Amid Expectations of a Lithium Industry Cycle Reversal

Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) is a leading lithium industry chain enterprise in China, covering the entire industrial chain from lithium resource mining, lithium compound production, metallic lithium manufacturing to energy storage applications [1], and is a leading lithium company in the Hong Kong stock market. Recently, the company’s share price has experienced significant fluctuations: on November 21, 2025, affected by the mainland’s promotion of the “anti-involution” policy in the lithium iron phosphate industry, the share price plummeted 10.49% to HK$52.05 [2]; in addition, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange’s increase in lithium carbonate futures handling fees also caused the share price to drop by 12.5% at one point [4].

The company’s recent developments include: completing the issuance of 710 million yuan RMB green short-term bonds with an interest rate of 2.38% and a term of 180 days [3]; the management clearly stated that the lithium industry has hit the bottom and is in an upward cycle, expecting lithium carbonate prices to break through 150,000-200,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [4,8]. At the industry level, CICC pointed out that a new upward cycle of lithium batteries has started, and energy storage demand is expected to become the core driving factor [9]; lithium carbonate futures prices have rebounded strongly recently, approaching the annual high [10]. From the institutional perspective, Huiyan Research raised the target price of the company’s H-shares from HK$33.4 to HK$54, and is optimistic about its fundamental improvement in the long term [7].

1. Clear Expectations of Cycle Reversal
   : Both the company’s management and institutions like CICC believe that the lithium industry has entered an upward cycle, the supply-demand pattern will gradually improve, and the limited supply of large-scale projects next year is an important supporting factor [4,9].
2. Energy Storage Demand Becomes a New Growth Engine
   : Energy storage cell production capacity is fully utilized, and the company has established long-term stable supply cooperation with multiple industry leaders. The explosive growth of the energy storage market will bring significant benefits to the company [9].
3. Significant Advantages of Full Industry Chain Layout
   : The integrated layout from lithium resource mining to energy storage applications enables the company to effectively resist industry fluctuations and better seize the opportunities brought by the cycle reversal [1].

• Policy Fluctuation Risk
  : Changes in industry policies (such as the “anti-involution” policy) may lead to large short-term share price fluctuations [2].
• Price Rebound Less Than Expected
  : If lithium carbonate prices do not rebound as expected, it will affect the company’s performance.
• Macroeconomic Impact
  : The global macroeconomic situation may affect the demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets.

• Cycle Reversal Dividend
  : The lithium industry entering an upward cycle is expected to continuously improve the company’s performance.
• Energy Storage Market Explosion
  : The rapid growth of energy storage demand will open up new growth space for the company [9].
• Valuation Repair Space
  : Institutions raised the target price, and the company has room for valuation repair [7].

As a leading lithium company in Hong Kong stocks, Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) has long-term investment value under the expectation of lithium industry cycle reversal, relying on factors such as full industry chain layout, growing energy storage demand, and institutional optimism. However, in the short term, attention should be paid to risk factors such as changes in industry policies, fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices, and macroeconomic impacts. Investors should make decisions after comprehensive evaluation based on their own risk tolerance.