Tesla Stock Movement Analysis: November 24, 2025 Event

On November 24, 2025, Tesla (TSLA) stock experienced a 7% intraday jump driven by two key developments:

1. Melius Research Note
   : The firm labeled Tesla a “must own” due to progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD) software (v14.1.7) and in-house AI chip development [1].
2. Elon Musk’s Comments
   : The CEO highlighted Tesla’s AI chip capabilities (AI4 deployed in vehicles, AI5 nearing tape-out) on X [1].

Concurrent Reddit discussions expressed bearish sentiments, citing concerns about FSD overhype relative to competitors like Waymo, declining financial performance since 2022, and the 7% jump being based on dubious news [10].

• Stock Price
  : Tesla closed at $417.78 on November 24, representing a 3.88% gain for the day (intraday peak of 7% midday) [0].
• Volume
  : Trading volume reached 96.81M shares, above the 90.21M 30-day average [0].
• Sentiment
  : Mixed—bullish momentum from institutional optimism (Melius) clashed with retail skepticism (Reddit) about valuation and execution risks [10,1].

• Analyst Consensus
  : 40% Buy ratings, 38.8% Hold, 21.2% Sell, with a consensus price target of $455 (+6.7% from current levels) [0].
• Sector Performance
  : Tesla’s move aligned with a broader tech/AI rally, as the Nasdaq posted its biggest jump since May 2025 [4].

• Profitability
  : Q1 2025 profit declined 71% YoY to $1.48B, with sales dropping 9% [5].
• Revenue
  : 2024 full-year revenue rose 1% to $97.7B, indicating stagnation [6].
• Valuation
  : P/E ratio of 259x (vs industry average ~20x) suggests significant growth premium [0].

• Tesla
  : 400k FSD beta users in North America, 12% paid adoption as of Q3 2025 [4]. FSD v13 has 24% disengagement rate (3% critical) [3].
• Waymo
  : 2,500 commercial vehicles, 720+ sq miles of service area (Phoenix, SF, LA), and 80% fewer injury-causing crashes than human drivers [7,2].

• Geographic Slumps
  : Europe (Sweden down 85% YoY), Canada (Quebec down 85% Q125) [8,10].
• Regulatory Risks
  : Under NHTSA investigation for post-crash actions, adding to reputational concerns [9].

1. Exact timing of Melius Research note release relative to Tesla’s intraday peak [1].
2. Full-year earnings data for 2022–2024 to confirm long-term decline [6].
3. Waymo’s 2025 disengagement rate (latest data from 2022 shows 0.59 per vehicle) [3].
4. Tesla’s 2025 NHTSA complaint volume and resolution status [9].

• Bullish Case
  : Melius’s thesis on FSD/AI chips driving $100B+ value shift to Tesla [1].
• Bearish Case
  : Reddit’s concerns about unfulfilled promises (Optimus, robotaxi) and declining fundamentals [10].

• Financial Decline
  : 71% YoY profit drop in Q1 2025 may signal long-term margin compression [5].
• Sales Stagnation
  : Slumps in Europe/Canada and rising competition from BYD [8].
• Regulatory Scrutiny
  : NHTSA investigation into post-crash actions could lead to fines or recalls [9].
• Valuation Bubble
  : High P/E ratio (259x) makes the stock vulnerable to sentiment shifts [0].

1. FSD adoption rate growth (target:10M paid users by2027) [4].
2. Q42025 earnings report (expected to show if revenue growth resumes) [6].
3. Waymo’s expansion into new markets (Detroit, Las Vegas planned2026) [7].
4. Tesla’s customer complaint resolution (NHTSA updates) [9].