Tesla Stock Movement Analysis: Melius 'Must Own' Call, AI Chip Progress, and Reddit Bearish Sentiment

On November 24, 2025 (EST), Tesla (TSLA) experienced a significant intraday stock pop of up to ~7.8% (reaching $421.72) following two key developments: Melius Research reaffirming Tesla as a “must own” due to Full Self-Driving (FSD) potential and CEO Elon Musk highlighting progress on Tesla’s AI chips (AI5 tape-out nearing, AI6 in development) [1][3][4]. The stock closed at $417.78, marking a 3.88% gain for the day with above-average volume (96.81M shares) [0]. Over the subsequent 5 days (as of Nov27), TSLA’s stock rose 6.03% [0].

Bullish sentiment is driven by analyst confidence in Tesla’s AI and autonomy roadmap: 40% of analysts maintain a “Buy” rating with a consensus target of $455 [0]. However, Reddit users expressed bearish concerns, including FSD lagging behind Waymo (which has 24/7 autonomous service in LA, Phoenix, and SF Bay Area with a lower incident rate of 1 crash per ~98k miles) [2][5], potential overvaluation (P/E ratio of ~259x vs industry average ~15x) [0], and reliance on repetitive news narratives to drive stock moves [5].

1. Cross-Domain Linkage
   : Tesla’s AI chip progress is directly tied to FSD advancement, as more powerful chips are critical for processing real-time autonomous driving data [3].
2. Narrative Reliance
   : The 7% intraday pop reflects Tesla’s stock sensitivity to Musk’s comments and analyst calls, indicating potential volatility from over-reliance on narrative-driven momentum [1][5].
3. Autonomy Gap
   : Waymo’s lead in real-world deployment and safety metrics suggests regulatory approval for Tesla’s FSD may face longer timelines [2].

• FSD Safety & Deployment
  : Tesla’s FSD lags Waymo in safety incident rates and real-world coverage, which could delay regulatory clearance [2].
• Overvaluation
  : The stock’s extreme P/E ratio (259x) increases risk of correction if AI chip/FSD progress fails to meet expectations [0].
• Volatility
  : Stock moves are heavily influenced by short-term news, leading to potential overreactions [1][5].

• AI Chip Leadership
  : Tesla’s in-house AI chip development could position it as a leader in autonomous driving and AI computing [3].
• FSD Monetization
  : Successful deployment of FSD could unlock significant revenue from robotaxi services [4].

• Price Metrics
  : Nov24 intraday high ($421.72), close ($417.78), 5-day gain (+6.03%) [0].
• Valuation
  : Market cap ($1.37T), P/E ratio (259x) [0].
• Safety Stats
  : Waymo incident rate (1 crash per ~98k miles) [2].
• Sentiment
  : Mixed—analyst bullish (40% Buy) vs Reddit bearish (FSD lag, overvaluation) [0][5].