Systematic Options Trading Without Technical Analysis: 3-Month Experience Analysis

This analysis leverages a Reddit post [0] detailing a trader’s 3-month systematic SPX credit spread strategy without technical analysis. Key metrics:74% win rate,8% average win,12% average loss, max risk per trade <4%. The strategy aligns with bull put spread norms (75-90% win rate) [1]. Market context includes SPX’s Nov20 2.96% drop [2] and VIX’s 60-day high of28.99 [4].

1. Systematic strategies work without TA if disciplined: The trader’s win rate (above60% breakeven for negative RR) ensures profitability now [5].
2. Psychological retraining is critical: 3 months were needed to follow signals emotion-free [0].
3. Volatility is an untested risk: Performance during spikes (VIX28.99) requires validation [4].

: Higher-than-recommended risk per trade (4% vs 1-2% [6]), negative RR ratio [5], volatility vulnerability [4].
: Reduce risk to1-2% [6], adjust strikes for better RR [1], add volatility filters [4].

The strategy is profitable now but has risks. Breakeven win rate is60% [5]. Market context: SPX volatility (Nov20 drop) and VIX spikes [2,4]. Recommendations focus on risk management and refinement (non-prescriptive).