Tesla Stock Movement Analysis: Nov 24, 2025 - Melius 'Must Own' Call vs Bearish Reddit Sentiment

On Nov24,2025, Tesla (TSLA) experienced intraday volatility, reaching a ~7.8% gain from Nov21 close ($391.09 to $421.72 intraday) after Melius Research labeled it a ‘must own’ due to FSD progress and AI chip updates. It closed at $417.78 (3.88% daily gain), outperforming the Tech sector’s 0.149% rise. Bullish sentiment centered on AI/autonomy roadmap, while Reddit raised bearish points: FSD overhyped vs Waymo’s fully driverless expansions, Q3 2025 37% YoY EPS drop, unfulfilled Optimus/robotaxi promises, and repetitive positive news. Tesla’s FSD has 2.9M miles between collisions (vs national 505k), but Waymo has launched fully driverless ride-hailing in multiple U.S. cities. Musk’s AI5 chip (5x AI4 compute) has completed digital design but mass production is in 2027. Q3 results included $1B net income drop but 50% YoY energy storage revenue surge, with current P/E 224.52x reflecting premium valuation.

1. Intraday Hype vs Sustained Gain
   : ~7% intraday jump didn’t translate to similar daily close, indicating short-term profit-taking or skepticism.
2. Autonomy Race Gap
   : Waymo’s fully driverless lead contrasts with Tesla’s supervised FSD, highlighting execution risks.
3. Valuation Disparity
   : Premium P/E persists despite earnings decline, underscoring focus on future AI/autonomy potential.
4. Sentiment Divide
   : Institutional bullishness vs retail bearishness reflects differing views on Tesla’s execution capability.

• Financial Performance: 37% YoY EPS drop and $1B net income decline may impact long-term valuation.
• Execution Delays: Slow FSD rollout vs competitors and unfulfilled promises may erode investor confidence.
• Competition: Waymo’s lead could weaken Tesla’s autonomy first-mover advantage.
• Regulatory/Quality Issues: Ongoing safety probes (door handles, Powerwall) and recalls may hurt brand reputation.

• AI Chip Progress: AI5 chip’s digital design completion positions Tesla for future AI advancements.
• Energy Storage Growth: 50% YoY surge offers diversification amid EV competition.
• Safety Record: FSD’s 2.9M miles between collisions aids regulatory approvals.

• Stock Price
  : Intraday high $421.72 (~7.8% from Nov21 close), daily close $417.78 (3.88% gain).
• Financial Metrics
  : Q3 2025 EPS down37% YoY, net income drop ~$1B, operating profit beat estimates by3.6%, energy storage revenue up50% YoY.
• Autonomy
  : Waymo has fully driverless ride-hailing in multiple cities; Tesla plans robotaxi services in8-10 cities by end2025.
• AI Chip
  : AI5 chip digital design complete, mass production in2027 (2000-2500 TOPS compute capacity).