2025 Thanksgiving Week Market Analysis: Retail Performance, Consumer Confidence, and Medium-Term Risks

The 2025 Thanksgiving shortened trading week (Nov 24-28) focused on American consumer behavior amid Black Friday sales [1]. Preliminary data shows strong Black Friday activity: 81.7 million in-store shoppers (National Retail Federation) and online sales up +8.2% to a historic high (Adobe Analytics) [2]. This drove major indices up: S&P 500 (+2.34%), NASDAQ (+1.5%), Dow Jones (+1.9%) over Nov24-26 [0]. Retail stocks performed well: TGT (+6.22%), WMT (+4.84%), AMZN (+1.27%) [0]. Sector performance showed Energy (+1.76%) and Consumer Defensive (+1.31%) leading gains, while Consumer Cyclical was flat (-0.07%) [0]. Contrasting this short-term strength, consumer confidence fell sharply: Conference Board index to 88.7 (down 6.8 points) and Michigan sentiment to 50.3 (preliminary Nov data) [3].

1. Retail Performance Disparity
   : TGT and WMT outperformed AMZN, likely due to stronger in-store promotions (e.g., TGT’s limited-edition totes for first shoppers) vs AMZN’s online focus [0,4].
2. Confidence vs Sales Gap
   : Strong Black Friday sales contrast with weak consumer confidence, indicating potential short-term spending pullback vs medium-term caution [2,3].
3. Sector Contrast
   : Consumer Defensive strength (+1.31%) vs Consumer Cyclical flatness (-0.07%) reflects investor preference for staples over discretionary spending amid economic uncertainty [0].

• Weak consumer confidence may dampen December holiday spending beyond Black Friday [3].
• Consumer Cyclical underperformance suggests investor caution about discretionary sectors [0].
• AMZN’s impersonation scam warnings could erode online shopper trust [5].
• Upcoming WMT/TGT earnings (Nov28) may reveal margin pressures or inventory issues [4].

• Strong in-store sales benefited WMT/TGT, presenting short-term gains for these retailers [0].
• Online sales growth (+8.2%) indicates continued digital shopping trend [2].

• Major indices rose 1.5-2.34% over Nov24-26, driven by Black Friday sales [0].
• Retail stocks: TGT (+6.22%), WMT (+4.84%), AMZN (+1.27%) [0].
• Black Friday metrics: Online +8.2% (Adobe), in-store 81.7M (NRF) [2].
• Consumer confidence: Conference Board (88.7), Michigan (50.3) [3].
• Upcoming events: WMT/TGT earnings (Nov28), Cyber Monday sales data [4].

Note: This summary provides objective data for decision-making without prescriptive recommendations.