Analysis of Fed Daly's December Rate Cut Comment & Market Impact (2025-11-24)

A Reddit discussion on November 24, 2025, centered on San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s surprise comment supporting a December rate cut. Key arguments included: rate cuts would boost AI investments rather than jobs (17 votes), an 81% probability of a cut (4 votes), concerns about propping up an AI bubble (1 vote), and viewing panic sell-offs as buying opportunities (1 vote). Subsequent analysis confirms Daly’s comment, the 81% probability, and positive market reactions on November 24—especially in tech-heavy indices like the NASDAQ.

a) San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supported a December rate cut, citing a sudden deterioration in the job market [1,2,4].
b) The CME FedWatch Tool implied an

of a December 25-basis-point rate cut as of November 24 [5].
c) The NASDAQ Composite rose on November 24, outperforming the S&P 500 (+1.03%) and Dow Jones (+0.17%) [0].
d) The Energy sector led gains on November 24 (+1.76%), while Healthcare was the worst performer (-0.117%) [0].
e) Prior to November 24, the market experienced a sharp drop on November 20 (NASDAQ down , S&P 500 down ) followed by a recovery [0].

Daly’s comment (alongside John Williams and Christopher Waller) reinforced market expectations of a December cut [1,3]. Her focus on weak labor markets aligns with the Reddit thread’s context of rate cut drivers [4].

The 81% rate cut probability from the Reddit thread is confirmed by CME FedWatch data [5]. This probability fluctuated from

to due to policy comments and economic data [6].

November 24 gains (especially NASDAQ’s jump) reflect optimism about rate cuts boosting growth sectors like tech [0]. However, the tech sector’s modest gain (0.149% on Nov24) vs. Energy’s 1.76% suggests caution—possibly tied to the Reddit thread’s AI bubble concerns [0]. The Nov20 drop indicates volatility before rate cut expectations solidified [0].

Energy’s outperformance may stem from expectations of lower borrowing costs supporting investments [0]. Healthcare’s underperformance (-0.117%) could reflect concerns about reduced spending if the labor market weakens further [0].

Rate cut expectations drove a recovery on November24, reversing Nov20 losses [0]. The NASDAQ’s strong performance signals investor confidence in tech/AI sectors benefiting from lower rates [0].

The US Dollar softened near a 1-week low as markets priced in the December cut [1,3]. This could boost exports and multinational earnings [1].

The shift from 50% to

probability in two weeks indicates increased confidence in Fed easing, potentially leading to higher risk-taking [6]. However, tech’s modest gain suggests lingering caution about AI bubble risks [0].

• Event Timing
  : The Reddit discussion occurred on November24 (post-Thanksgiving), when US markets were open and reacting to Fed comments [0].
• Rate Cut Date
  : The Fed’s final 2025 meeting is December9-10 [5,6].
• Labor Market
  : Daly’s comment about weak labor markets aligns with recent (unpublished) data [4].
• Sector Trends
  : Energy’s leadership reflects a balance between growth (tech) and defensive sectors [0].

1. AI Sector Data
   : No specific performance data for AI-related stocks to verify the claim that rate cuts boost AI investments.
2. Fed AI Comments
   : No direct Fed statements on AI bubble concerns.
3. Labor Market Metrics
   : Exact unemployment/job growth figures influencing Daly’s comment are missing.
4. Post-Nov24 Reaction
   : No data beyond Nov24 to assess if the market’s positive trend continued.
5. Curated News
   : The get_curated_news_tool failed (429 error), so additional top-source context is missing.

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (from get_market_indices and get_sector_performance tools).
[1] Investing.com, “US Dollar Holds Steady Near 1-Week Low as Markets Price in December Fed Cut”, URL: https://www.investing.com/analysis/us-dollar-holds-steady-near-1week-low-as-markets-price-in-december-fed-cut-200670898, Published: Nov27,2025.
[2] Tradealgo.com, “Investors Pile Into Fed Futures as Bets Build for a December Cut”, URL: https://www.tradealgo.com/news/investors-pile-into-fed-futures-as-bets-build-for-a-december-cut.
[3] Morningstar, “Global Markets Boosted by Fed Rate-Cut Hopes”, URL: https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202511271574/global-markets-boosted-by-fed-rate-cut-hopes-us-markets-closed-for-thanksgiving, Published: Nov27,2025.
[4] FXStreet, “US Dollar Index retreats below99.50 on rate cut expectations”, URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-retreats-below-9950-on-rate-cut-expectations-202511270604, Published: Nov27,2025.
[5] AOL, “Here’s Why Dec.10 Could Be a Very Important Day for the Stock…”, URL: https://www.aol.com/articles/heres-why-dec-10-could-095400458.html.
[6] Noradarealestate.com, “Fed Interest Rate Predictions:70% Chance of December2025 Rate Cut”, URL: https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/fed-interest-rate-predictions-70-chance-of-december-2025-rate-cut/.
[7] CBS News, “3 smart mortgage moves to make before a December Fed rate cut”, URL: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/smart-mortgage-moves-to-make-before-december-2025-fed-rate-cut/, Published: Nov26,2025.
[8] TradingView, “7 votes for a rate cut on December10?!”, URL: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FEDFUNDS/zI8YS7ww-7-votes-for-a-rate-cut-on-December-10/.
[9] Pintu.co.id, “Odds of December Fed Rate Cut Jumps to85% After PPI Data…”, URL: https://pintu.co.id/en/news/233270-odds-of-december-fed-rate-cut-jumps-to-85-after-ppi-data-release, Published: Nov27,2025.

Note: Some dates are not specified in the tool outputs.
All data retrieved as of Nov27,2025.
This report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.