2025 Thanksgiving Week Market Impact Analysis: Consumer Sentiment vs. Sales Forecasts

The 2025 Thanksgiving week market showed a recovery trend following a Nov20 drop (-2.96% S&P500). Indices (S&P500, Russell2000) gained over the subsequent days leading to Thanksgiving: S&P500 recovered +4.19% from Nov20 to Nov26 [0]. Sector performance on Nov23 highlighted Energy (+1.76%) and Consumer Defensive (+1.31%) as outperformers, while Consumer Cyclical (-0.07%) underperformed [1], reflecting mixed investor sentiment on consumer spending. This aligns with the MarketWatch article’s focus on consumer stakes [6]. Key consumer metrics reveal a disconnect: NRF forecasts $1T+ holiday sales (+3.7-4.2% YoY) [2][5], but University of Michigan sentiment fell to51.0 (-29% YoY) [4]. Mastercard projected slower growth (+3.6% vs prior 4.1%) [5].

1. Small-cap stocks (Russell2000) recovered stronger than large-caps, indicating potential risk-on sentiment.
2. The Energy sector’s outperformance on Nov23 suggests temporary factors may have driven gains.
3. The disconnect between weak consumer sentiment and positive sales forecasts is a critical watchpoint for future market trends.

• Consumer sentiment risk: 29% YoY drop in UMich sentiment could undermine holiday sales, impacting consumer discretionary stocks [4].
• Sector disparity risk: Mixed consumer sector performance (Defensive up vs Cyclical down) warrants monitoring of retail sales [1].
• Volatility risk: Lighter Thanksgiving week volumes may amplify price swings [3].

• Recovery trend: Indices gained +4.19% (S&P500 Nov20-Nov26) suggests market resilience [0].
• Energy sector outperformance: Potential short-term gains for energy-related stocks (based on Nov23 data [1]).

• Market recovery: S&P500 recovered +4.19% from Nov20 to Nov26 [0].
• Sector highlights: Energy (+1.76%) and Consumer Defensive (+1.31%) led on Nov23; Consumer Cyclical (-0.07%) lagged [1].
• Consumer metrics: UMich sentiment (51.0, -29% YoY) [4]; NRF forecast ($1.01-1.02T) [2][5]; Mastercard (+3.6%) [5].
• Critical gaps: XLY ETF performance data (API error), actual Black Friday sales, specific retail stock trends.