Structured Analytical Report: OpenAI’s 2030 Paying User Goal Feasibility

A Reddit discussion argues OpenAI’s 2030 goal of 220 million paying users is delusional, citing unsustainable financials, competition from Google Gemini and Chinese AI providers, lack of user retention moats, and market commoditization. Counterpoints include potential ad monetization of free users and future compute efficiency improvements.

a.

: OpenAI’s current paying user base is ~35 million (July 2025, ~5% of weekly active users). The 220 million goal requires a ~6.3x increase (not the 14x claimed in the Reddit post) [1].
b. : Reuters cites The Information’s report of $4.3 billion in first-half 2025 revenue, while internal Microsoft documents suggest ~$2.27 billion [1,3]. Inference costs alone reached $5.02 billion (2.2x the Microsoft-derived revenue) [3]. Total burn (R&D + operations) was $2.5 billion [1].
c. : ChatGPT holds 60.5% of the AI search market share vs. Gemini’s 13.5% [2]. ChatGPT has 700 million weekly users vs. Gemini’s 650 million monthly users [2].
d. :

• Gemini Advanced ($19.99/month) matches ChatGPT Plus ($20/month) but offers better free tiers and Google Workspace integration [4].
• DeepSeek cut API prices by ~50% in September 2025, with cache-hit input costs as low as $0.028 per million tokens (90% discount vs. OpenAI’s GPT5 mini $0.25/million tokens) [5].
  e.
  Funding Gap
  : HSBC projects a $207 billion funding shortfall by 2030 [6].

a.

:
OpenAI’s inference costs exceed its revenue, indicating an unsustainable cost structure. Conflicting revenue data (The Information vs. Microsoft) adds uncertainty to its financial health [1,3]. To reach profitability, the company must either scale revenue dramatically or reduce costs—both challenged by price-cutting competition [5].

b.

:
Gemini’s Workspace integration is a key enterprise advantage, while Chinese providers like DeepSeek use caching to undercut prices for cost-sensitive users [4,5]. ChatGPT’s first-mover advantage and larger user base provide some retention, but switching barriers are low (per event claims) [event content].

c.

:
The 220 million goal requires a ~43% CAGR in paying users over 5 years. Given margin pressures and competition, this is highly challenging. HSBC’s $207 billion funding gap projection suggests OpenAI may struggle to fund infrastructure for such growth [6].

d.

:
Multiple providers offer similar LLMs, leading to price competition. This could reduce margins across the industry, forcing players to focus on niche verticals or innovative features (e.g., DeepSeek’s caching) [event content,5].

a.

: Failure to reach the goal may lead to increased funding needs, valuation markdowns, or a pivot to ad monetization (unproven) [6].
b. : Price wars could drive consolidation or niche focus. Enterprise users may benefit from integrated solutions (e.g., Gemini + Workspace), while cost-sensitive users gain from lower prices [4,5].
c. : More choices and lower prices are positive, but fragmentation may lead to inconsistent experiences [event content].

• ChatGPT’s market share is 4x Gemini’s [2].
• DeepSeek’s caching reduces costs by up to 90% for repeated queries [5].
• OpenAI’s inference costs are 2.2x its Microsoft-derived revenue [3].
• HSBC projects $792 billion in infrastructure costs (2025–2030) [6].

a. Conflicting revenue figures for OpenAI’s first-half 2025.
b. Data on OpenAI’s ad monetization strategy and timeline.
c. Compute efficiency improvements (e.g., TPU performance gains).
d. User retention rates and switching behavior metrics.
e. OpenAI’s vertical market penetration (e.g., healthcare, finance).
f.具体数据 on user migration to Gemini or Chinese AI providers.

[1] Reuters. (2025, Nov 26). OpenAI projects 220 million paying ChatGPT users by 2030. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-projected-least-220-million-people-will-pay-chatgpt-by-2030-information-2025-11-26/
[2] Motley Fool. (2025, Nov24). Can Alphabet’s Gemini3 Overtake ChatGPT? Retrieved from https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/24/can-alphabets-gemini-3-overtake-chatgpt/
[3] WheresYoured.at. (2025). Here’s How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue. Retrieved from https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/
[4] DigitalOcean. (2025). ChatGPT vs Gemini: How AI Assistants Stack Up in2026. Retrieved from https://www.digitalocean.com/resources/articles/gemini-vs-chatgpt
[5] IntuitionLabs. (2025). LLM API Pricing Comparison (2025): OpenAI, Gemini, Claude. Retrieved from https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/llm-api-pricing-comparison-2025
[6] Fortune. (2025, Nov26). OpenAI won’t make money by2030 and still needs to come up with… Retrieved from https://fortune.com/2025/11/26/is-openai-profitable-forecast-data-center-200-billion-shortfall-hsbc/
[event content] Reddit Discussion: “OpenAI’s 200m paying user goal by2030 is delusional. Here is the bear case nobody talks about.” (2025-11-27 UTC)
[Reddit post] Reddit Summary: OP’s bear case for OpenAI’s 220M user goal (2025-11-27 UTC)