Tesla Stock Movement: Melius 'Must Own' Call vs. Bearish Reddit Sentiment

#tesla #stock_movement #fsd #ai_chip #bearish_sentiment #analyst_call #reddit #waymo #valuation_risk #execution_risk
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US Stock
November 28, 2025

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Tesla Stock Movement: Melius 'Must Own' Call vs. Bearish Reddit Sentiment

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Integrated Analysis

On 2025-11-24, Tesla (TSLA) stock experienced movement triggered by Melius Research labeling it a “must own” due to Full Self-Driving (FSD) progress and Elon Musk’s AI chip comments [1]. This contrasted with bearish sentiment on Reddit, where users criticized FSD as overhyped (comparing to Waymo’s deployed robotaxi service), unfulfilled promises (Optimus robots, large-scale robotaxis), and questioned the stock’s valuation [2]. Internal data shows Tesla’s P/E ratio at 259.24x, indicating high investor optimism tied to future AI/autonomous revenue [0]. Waymo’s competitive edge (88% fewer crashes than human drivers, 360k weekly trips) adds pressure [3][4].

Key Insights
  1. Sentiment Disconnect
    : Analyst bullishness (Melius) and retail bearishness (Reddit) highlight a divide in expectations for Tesla’s future growth.
  2. Valuation Reliance
    : Tesla’s high valuation depends heavily on successful FSD and AI chip deployment, which remains unproven at scale.
  3. Competitive Gap
    : Waymo’s deployed, safer autonomous service poses a long-term threat to Tesla’s FSD leadership claim.
Risks & Opportunities

Risks
:

  • Valuation Risk
    : 259.24x P/E ratio is unsustainable if FSD/AI chip revenue fails to materialize [0].
  • Execution Risk
    : Unfulfilled promises (Optimus, robotaxis) raise concerns about delivery capability [2].
  • Competitive Risk
    : Waymo’s superior safety and deployment scale may erode Tesla’s market position [3][4].

Opportunities
:

  • FSD Adoption
    : Successful deployment could unlock significant recurring revenue [1].
  • AI Chip Leadership
    : Musk’s AI chip progress may position Tesla as a leader in autonomous driving tech [1].
Key Information Summary
  • Event Trigger
    : Melius’ “must own” call and Musk’s AI chip comments led to Tesla’s stock movement [1].
  • Bearish Sentiment
    : Reddit users cited FSD hype, unfulfilled promises, and valuation concerns [2].
  • Competitive Context
    : Waymo’s 88% fewer crashes and 360k weekly trips show a deployed edge [3][4].
  • Financials
    : Tesla’s P/E ratio (259.24x) reflects high growth expectations [0].
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Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.