NVIDIA Q3 FY26 Results: Mixed Sentiment Analysis Report

The analysis centers on NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY26 results and mixed investor sentiment from a Reddit discussion. Key bearish arguments include macroeconomic factors (inflation/jobs data impacting GPU demand), high customer concentration risk (33B from four customers), and overvaluation/accounting concerns. Bullish points highlight long-term profitability from AI growth and analyst price targets ($220–250). A neutral view frames the stock drop as part of a broader market correction [user-provided event content].

NVDA reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $57B (+62% YoY), with data center revenue at $51.2B (+66% YoY) [6]. Despite strong results, NVDA’s stock declined 7.81% on 2025-11-20 and an additional 1.30% on 2025-11-21 [0].

• Short-term
  : NVDA’s stock dropped 9.11% over two trading days (2025-11-20 to 21) [0], reflecting investor concerns over customer concentration and valuation.
• Medium-term
  : Long-term growth depends on AI adoption and the ramp of NVDA’s Blackwell platform (in full production with strong demand) [2].
• Sentiment
  : Mixed—bearish on short-term risks, bullish on AI-driven long-term trends, neutral on market correction dynamics [user-provided event content].

• Financial Metrics
  : Q3 FY26 revenue $57B (+62% YoY), net profit $32B (+65% YoY) [3]; market cap $4.39T, P/E ratio 44.21x, net profit margin 53.01% [1].
• Customer Concentration
  : Four customers accounted for 61% of Q3 sales (up from 56% in Q2) [3], aligning with Reddit’s 33B claim (61% of $57B = ~34.77B).
• Price Movements
  : 7.81% drop on 2025-11-20, 1.30% drop on 2025-11-21 [0]; 1-month return: -5.86% [1].

• Gaps
  : Exact identity of four major customers (credit risk assessment), recent jobs data (to confirm “hot” claim), and detailed accounting practices (revenue recognition for long-term contracts).
• Multi-Perspective
  :
  • Bearish: High concentration risk, elevated valuation, macroeconomic headwinds.
  • Bullish: AI growth, Blackwell demand, analyst price targets ($220–250).
  • Neutral: Stock drop as part of broader market correction.
• Key Monitors
  : Blackwell ramp progress [2], inflation/interest rates [5], customer retention rates [3], and gross margin trends (low-70s initially, mid-70s long-term) [2].

• Customer Concentration
  : Users should be aware that 61% of sales from four customers poses significant revenue risk if any major customer reduces GPU purchases [3].
• Valuation
  : Elevated P/E ratio (44.21x) increases volatility risk if growth expectations are not met [1].
• Macroeconomics
  : Persistent inflation may impact demand for high-priced GPU products [5].

[0] Stock Price Data: NVDA (2025-11-15 to 2025-11-23) [Internal Tool: get_stock_daily_prices]
[1] Company Overview: NVDA [Internal Tool: get_company_overview]
[2] Earnings Transcript: NVDA Q3 2025 [Internal Tool: get_earnings_transcript]
[3] Reuters. (2025, Nov 20). Nvidia beat may yet stir fear on the Street. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nvidia-beat-may-yet-stir-fear-street-2025-11-20/
[5] Reuters. (2025, Nov25). Inflation weighing on US income growth ahead of holiday … Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/inflation-weighing-us-income-growth-ahead-holiday-season-study-says-2025-11-25/
[6] Investing.com. (2025). NVIDIA Q3 FY26 presentation: Revenue surges62% as data center … Retrieved from https://ph.investing.com/news/company-news/nvidia-q3-fy26-presentation-revenue-surges-62-as-data-center-business-dominates-93CH-2112874

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.