Tesla Stock Movement Analysis: November 24, 2025 Event

On November 24, 2025 (EST), Tesla (TSLA) stock experienced a ~7% intraday jump following two key developments:

1. Melius Research Upgrade
   : The firm labeled Tesla a “must own” due to advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) software (version14.1.7) and its AI chip ecosystem [0].
2. Musk’s AI Chip Comments
   : CEO Elon Musk highlighted Tesla’s in-house AI chip progress (AI4 deployed in cars/data centers, AI5 chip nearing production) on X (formerly Twitter) [0].

The event was reported in a Yahoo News article [0] and discussed in a Reddit post where users expressed bearish sentiments about the sustainability of the rise, citing repetitive narratives and unfulfilled deployment promises (Optimus robots, robotaxi scale) [4].

• Price Movement
  : Tesla’s stock rose ~6.8% from its November21 close ($391.09) to November24 close ($417.78) [2], aligning with the intraday7% jump reported by Yahoo News [0].
• Sentiment
  : Mixed—bullish sentiment from institutional analysts (Melius) was countered by retail investor skepticism (Reddit) about the validity of the rally and Tesla’s execution track record.

• Bullish Drivers
  : Dependence on FSD adoption growth and AI chip commercialization (Melius estimates $100B+ value shift to Tesla from legacy automakers over5 years [0]).
• Bearish Risks
  : Unresolved concerns about declining profitability and execution delays for Optimus/robotaxi services (Reddit users) [4].

• Q32025 Earnings
  : Revenue grew12% YoY to $28.1B, but EPS declined ~30% YoY to50 cents (missed consensus estimate of53 cents) [1]. The drop reflects margin pressures from EV price cuts and R&D spending on AI/FSD.
• Price Performance
  : Tesla’s stock recovered ~6.8% after a3% drop the prior week (due to AI bubble fears) [0].

• AI Chip Progress
  : AI4 chips are deployed in millions of Tesla cars/data centers; AI5 chip is set for volume production in mid-2027 [0].
• FSD Advancement
  : Version14.1.7 uses vision-only technology and extensive compute training to improve autonomous capabilities [0].

• Direct
  : Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
• Related Sectors
  : EV manufacturers (RIVN, LCID), autonomous driving tech (WAYMO, Mobileye), AI chip suppliers (NVDA, AMD)
• Supply Chain
  : Chip fabricators (TSMC) and FSD software partners

1. Melius Research Details
   : No public price target or full report text available [0].
2. FSD Adoption
   : Lack of data on how many users have upgraded to FSD version14.1.7.
3. Optimus Deployment
   : No confirmation of Optimus robots operating in Tesla factories (Musk’s2024 promise of factory deployment unfulfilled as of 2025) [2].

• Profitability Decline
  : Q3 EPS dropped ~30% YoY, which may erode long-term investor confidence [1].
• Execution Risk
  : Unfulfilled promises (Optimus mass production, robotaxi expansion to50% of U.S. population) raise concerns about Tesla’s ability to deliver on its AI/robotics roadmap [4,6].
• Repetitive Narrative
  : Investors are reacting to the same FSD/AI chip narrative repeatedly, which could lead to diminishing returns over time [4].

1. FSD Metrics
   : Adoption rate of version14.1.7 and safety performance data.
2. Operational Updates
   : Optimus factory deployment and robotaxi expansion to new cities (current service limited to Austin, TX) [3].
3. Q42025 Earnings
   : To assess if the EPS decline continues and if margin pressures persist.
4. Competitive Landscape
   : Waymo’s expansion (Dallas launch in2026) and its impact on Tesla’s robotaxi market share [3].

[0] Yahoo News. (2025, November24). Tesla stock pops as Melius says it’s a ‘must own’ due to FSD, Musk touts AI chip progress. Retrieved from crawl tool URL
[1] Yahoo News. (2025). Tesla Q3 Earnings Miss Expectations, Revenues Increase. Retrieved from web search result
[2] Ginlix Analytical Database. (2025). Tesla (TSLA) Daily Price Data (Nov20-Nov24).
[3] Forbes. (2025, July28). Waymo To Widen Robotaxi Lead Over Tesla With2026 Dallas Launch. Retrieved from web search result
[4] Reddit Post. (2025, November24). Tesla stock pops as Melius says it’s a ‘must own’ due to FSD, Musk touts AI chip progress.
[5] Ginlix Analytical Database. (2025). Tesla (TSLA) Real-Time Quote (Nov27,2025).
[6] Yahoo News. (2025). Tesla’s Optimus and AI Ambitions: Can Musk’s Vision Deliver?. Retrieved from web search result
[7] Yahoo News. (2025). Tesla Robotaxi Launch and FSD Advancements Drive Sentiment. Retrieved from web search result
[8] Bloomberg Intelligence. (2025). Tesla Leads in Self-Driving Tech Over Waymo. Retrieved from web search result
[9] Forbes. (2025, July25). Tesla Robotaxis Average Just20 Miles/Day. Retrieved from web search result
[10] Investopedia. (2025, Nov13). Markets News, Nov13,2025: Stock Indexes Close Sharply Lower. Retrieved from web search result

• Profitability Risk
  : Users should be aware that Tesla’s Q3 EPS declined ~30% YoY, which may significantly impact long-term investor sentiment [1].
• Execution Risk
  : This development raises concerns about Tesla’s ability to deliver on its Optimus and robotaxi deployment promises, which warrant careful consideration [4,6].
• Narrative Fatigue
  : Historical patterns suggest that repetitive positive news about FSD/AI chips typically leads to diminishing returns over time, which users should factor into their analysis [4].

1. FSD Adoption Metrics
   : Growth in users of FSD version14.1.7 and safety performance data.
2. Operational Progress
   : Optimus deployment in Tesla factories and robotaxi expansion to new cities.
3. Financial Health
   : Q42025 earnings report to assess if the EPS decline continues.
4. Competitive Landscape
   : Waymo’s expansion and its impact on Tesla’s autonomous driving market share.
5. AI Chip Commercialization
   : Timeline for AI5 chip production and adoption in Tesla’s ecosystem.

This analysis provides a balanced view of the event, combining bullish and bearish perspectives to help decision-makers make informed choices. Always conduct additional research to fill information gaps before making investment decisions.

: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.