NVIDIA Q3 FY26 Earnings Analysis: Strong Results Amid Mixed Market Sentiment

NVIDIA reported record Q3 FY26 earnings on November 19, 2025, with

(up 22% QoQ, 62% YoY) and (up 21% QoQ,65% YoY) [1]. The Data Center segment led growth with (25% QoQ,66% YoY) driven by Blackwell GPU demand, which CEO Jensen Huang called “off the charts” [1]. The company guided Q4 FY26 revenue to [1]. Despite these results, NVIDIA’s stock dropped on November20 and closed at $178.88 on November21 [0].

• Stock Reaction
  : NVDA fell from $195.95 (Nov20 open) to $178.88 (Nov21 close) [0], driven by macro uncertainty, accounting allegations from short sellers [2], and profit taking after a 32% YTD rally [4].
• Macro Factors
  : Delayed U.S. inflation/jobs data raised rate hike fears, impacting tech stocks [3].

• Bullish Catalysts
  : Robust Q4 guidance ($65B ±2%), Blackwell GPU demand (3M chips shipped in 2025 [4]), and AI data center buildouts [1].
• Sector Context
  : The Technology sector was flat (+0.149%) on earnings day [3], indicating company-specific factors contributed to the drop.

NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market (80%+ share) with growing demand for training/inference workloads [1]. Partnerships with OpenAI (10GW systems) and Anthropic (1GW) underscore long-term growth [1].

Metric	Value	Source
Q3 FY26 Revenue	$57.0B (62% YoY)	[1]
Q3 FY26 Net Income	$31.9B (65% YoY)	[1]
Data Center Revenue	$51.2B (66% YoY)	[1]
Q4 FY26 Guidance	$65.0B ±2%	[1]
Stock Drop (Nov20)	-7.81%	[0]
Current Price (Nov28)	$180.26 (+1.37% after hours)	[0]
Share Repurchases (YTD FY26)	$37.0B	[1]

• Direct
  : NVDA
• Related Sectors
  : Semiconductors (AMD, INTC), AI (PLTR, BBAI), Data Centers (MSFT, GOOGL)
• Suppliers
  : TSM (TSMC), HYXN (SK Hynix)
• Customers
  : OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft Azure

• Exact customer concentration numbers (user claims $33B from 4 customers, unconfirmed [1][0])
• Detailed revenue recognition practices to address short seller allegations [2]
• Impact of delayed economic data on GPU demand [3]

• Accounting Allegations
  : Short sellers accuse NVIDIA of circular financing, which could lead to regulatory scrutiny [2].
• Customer Concentration
  : Reliance on large cloud providers poses revenue risk if purchases decline.
• Macro Uncertainty
  : Delayed inflation/jobs reports may lead to higher rates, reducing AI infrastructure spending [3].

• Accounting Concerns
  : “This development raises concerns about NVIDIA’s revenue recognition practices that warrant careful consideration. Short sellers have accused the company of circular financing, which could impact investor confidence if unaddressed.”
• Customer Concentration
  : “Users should be aware that NVIDIA’s heavy reliance on large cloud customers may significantly impact its revenue if any customer reduces GPU purchases.”
• Macro Uncertainty
  : “Delayed economic data (inflation, jobs) creates uncertainty about future interest rates, which could reduce demand for NVIDIA’s high-cost AI chips.”

• Blackwell GPU adoption rate
• Resolution of accounting allegations
• Upcoming inflation/jobs reports (Dec16-18 [3])

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.