2025 Black Friday Spending Resilience Amid Inflation, Tariffs, and Market Trends

The 2025 Black Friday season reveals a complex landscape: consumers continue to spend amid inflation (~3% [1]) and rising credit card debt [0], but transaction volumes are declining—indicating higher prices drive dollar growth rather than increased purchases [1]. Tariffs add significant cost pressures: LendingTree estimates an extra $132 per shopper on holiday gifts, with electronics ($186) and clothing ($82) hit hardest [2]. Sector performance on Nov27 reflects investor sentiment: Energy (+1.77%) and Consumer Defensive (+1.31%) sectors gained on essential demand, while Consumer Cyclical (-0.07%) underperformed due to discretionary spending concerns [3]. Small caps (Russell2000 +0.82% on Nov26) signal optimism in local retail businesses [4].

• Quantity vs Quality
  : Inflation distorts spending metrics—dollar amounts rise but transaction counts fall, showing consumers buy fewer items at higher prices [1].
• Tariff-Driven Shifts
  : Artificial Christmas tree tariffs (20-30%) have shifted demand to real trees [2], while grocery items like cranberry sauce are up 46% YoY due to tariffs [2].
• Sector Rotation
  : Investors favor essential goods (Consumer Defensive) and energy over discretionary categories (Consumer Cyclical) amid budget constraints [3].

• Risks
  : Lower-income households face severe budget squeezes (Deloitte survey shows 4.3% YoY spending decline [1]), rising credit card debt risks post-holiday defaults [0], and tariff policy gridlock (No Tariffs on Groceries Act stalled [2]).
• Opportunities
  : Small retail businesses (Russell2000 gains [4]) and real tree sellers benefit from tariff shifts [2]; Energy sector growth reflects holiday demand optimism [3].

• Timing
  : Analysis covers Black Friday weekend (Nov27,2025), a critical holiday retail period.
• Spending Forecast
  : NRF projects $1 trillion in 2025 holiday spending, with ~187 million shoppers between Black Friday and Cyber Monday [1].
• Tariff Impact
  : Groceries and electronics face the highest price hikes due to tariffs [2].

[0] Fox Business Video: “‘BUY NOW’: Expert WARNS tariffs could SPARK holiday sticker shock” (Nov27,2025)
[1] CBS News, Newsweek, CNN Business, LipperAlpha (Nov2025)
[2] Observer, Yahoo Finance, CBS News, LendingTree (Nov2025)
[3] Sector Performance Analysis (Nov27,2025)
[4] Market Indices Data (Nov13-Nov26,2025)