AI-Driven Memory Shortage: Long-Term Investment Opportunities and Industry Dynamics

The AI-driven memory shortage has triggered structural changes in the semiconductor sector. DRAM prices rose 171.8% YoY in Q3 2025 [1], with High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—critical for AI—seeing explosive growth (Samsung’s HBM shipments up 85% QoQ [2]). The market remains concentrated: SK Hynix (33.2%), Samsung (32.6%), and Micron (25.7%) control ~91.5% of global DRAM [2], enabling supply control (Samsung hiked prices by 60% since September 2025 [4]). Equipment suppliers like ASML (EUV monopoly [3]) and Applied Materials (DRAM revenues up >50% in 2025 [3]) benefit from fab expansions.

1. Cycle Shift
   : The traditional 3.5–4.5 year memory cycle is stretched to 4+ years due to AI infrastructure demand [4].
2. Concentration Advantage
   : Top producers’ dominance ensures consistent profitability via supply control [2,4].
3. Equipment Moats
   : ASML’s EUV monopoly and Applied Materials’ leading-edge customer base create durable advantages [3].

• Cyclical volatility persists despite stretched cycles [4].
• Mid-2026 fab expansions may moderate price increases [1].

• Long-term positions in established producers (MU, SSNGY, HXSCL) and equipment suppliers (ASML, AMAT) [1,2,3].
• HBM growth benefits Samsung and SK Hynix [2].

• Market Share: Top 3 DRAM producers hold ~91.5% (Q3 2025) [2].
• Price Trends: DRAM up 171.8% YoY; 30% rise projected by end 2025 [1,4].
• Equipment Market: $224.4B by 2033 [3].
• Shortage Duration: At least four years [4].

Note: This summary provides informational context, not investment advice.