NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings Analysis: Business Strength vs Valuation Hype Debate

On November19,2025, NVIDIA (NVDA) reported record quarterly results: $57.01B revenue (62% YoY growth), $31.8B net income (59% YoY), and $1.30 EPS (60% YoY). Guidance for the next quarter included ~$65B revenue and a 75% gross margin [0]. A subsequent Reddit discussion (2025-11-28 EST) debated whether buying NVDA reflects confidence in the business or AI hype, with key points:

• Bullish: Reasonable forward P/E (~24x-26x, depending on fiscal year timing) [user-provided event content].
• Bearish: Growing competition from Alphabet, AMD, and Chinese chipmakers eroding NVDA’s moat [user-provided event content].
• Neutral: Irrational narrative shifts in finance communities tied to price movements [user-provided event content].
• Confusion: Fiscal year labeling (FY2026 vs FY2027) affecting forward P/E calculations [user-provided event content].

NVDA’s stock saw volatility post-earnings:

• Post-report drop
  : 7.81% decline on November20 (to $180.64) with 343.5M shares traded, likely due to profit-taking or competition concerns [0,3].
• Weekly performance
  : Flat over November18-26 (closing at $180.26 vs $181.36) [0].
• Sentiment
  : Analyst consensus remains bullish (73.4% Buy ratings, $250 target +38.7% upside) [0], but competition news (Google TPU adoption talks with Meta, Chinese domestic chips) has dampened short-term sentiment [4,5,8].

##4. Information Gaps & Context for Decision-Makers

• Critical Gaps
  :
  1. Clarification of forward P/E (FY2026 vs FY2027 fiscal year confusion) [user-provided event content].
  2. Assumptions behind conflicting valuations (analyst $250 target vs DCF $62 intrinsic value) [0,10].

3. Competitor market share trends (Google TPU, Baidu’s Kunlunxin) [4,8].

• Multi-Perspective
  :
  • Bullish
    : Dominant data center share, record earnings, high margins [0].
  • Bearish
    : Rising competition, overvaluation (per DCF), post-earnings drop [4,10].
• Monitor
  : Guidance execution ($65B next quarter), competitor adoption rates, margin sustainability [0,4,5].

##5. Risk Considerations

• Competition Risk
  : Google’s TPU (Meta talks) and Chinese chips (Baidu, Zhonghao Xinying) may reduce market share [4,5,8]. Users should track Meta’s 2027 TPU decision [5].
• Valuation Risk
  : Current price ($180) is 2x DCF intrinsic value ($62), indicating potential correction if growth slows [10].
• Execution Risk
  : Missing $65B revenue guidance could trigger a sharp decline [0].
• Geopolitical Risk
  : U.S. export curbs accelerate Chinese domestic chip development [8].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (get_company_overview, get_stock_daily_prices)
[1] Digitimes: Meta and Nvidia reportedly push to integrate GPUs into HBM for AI boost (2025-11-28) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251128PD228/meta-nvidia-gpu-hbm-performance.html
[2] CNBC: Baidu is emerging as a major AI chip player in China to fill the Nvidia gap (2025-11-28) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/28/baidu-is-major-ai-chip-player-in-china-to-fill-nvidia-gap.html
[3] Bloomberg: Asia in the AI Money Machine (2025-11-28) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-11-28/asia-in-the-ai-money-machine
[4] Digitimes: Google’s TPU shakes up ASIC market, challenging Nvidia’s lead (2025-11-28) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251127PD219/google-nvidia-asic-tpu-market.html
[5] Digitimes: Google’s TPU strategy mounts fresh challenge to Nvidia’s GPU lead (2025-11-28) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251126PD220/google-tpu-asic-nvidia-gpu.html
[6] TweakTown: The next-gen HBM chips will combine both GPU and HBM for future AI chips from Meta and NVIDIA (2025-11-28) https://www.tweaktown.com/news/109112/the-next-gen-hbm-chips-will-combine-both-gpu-and-for-future-ai-from-meta-nvidia/index.html
[7] GuruFocus: AI Chip Leaders NVDA, AVGO, and AMD Receive Bullish Outlook Despite Google’s Custom Chips (2025-11-28) https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3226809/ai-chip-leaders-nvda-avgo-and-amd-receive-bullish-outlook-despite-googles-custom-chips
[8] Digitimes: China’s new TPU contender aims for Nvidia’s AI chip dominance (2025-11-28) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251127PD236/china-ai-chip-startup-tpu-nvidia.html
[9] NAI500: Snowflake Stock Is Beating the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Even Nvidia. Here’s Why. (2025-11-28) https://nai500.com/blog/2025/11/snowflake-stock-is-beating-the-sp-500-nasdaq-100-and-even-nvidia-heres-why/
[10] AcquirersMultiple.com: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value (2025-11-27) https://acquirersmultiple.com/2025/11/nvidia-corporation-nvda-our-calculation-of-intrinsic-value-2/

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. All decisions should be based on personal research and financial goals.