Pre-Market Analysis: US October Record Deficit Impact & Market Developments (Nov 28, 2025)

November 28, 2025
Pre-Market (US Markets Open at 9:30 AM EST)

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The US Treasury’s record $284 billion October deficit (delayed due to the federal shutdown) initially triggered a market selloff on November 20, but major indices recovered in subsequent sessions as investors rotated into defensive sectors like Energy and Consumer Defensive. Dogecoin (DOGE) continued its year-long decline amid disappointing ETF launch inflows, while a recent CME trading halt due to a data center cooling issue highlighted infrastructure risks for futures markets.

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Major US indices rebounded from the deficit-induced drop on November 20:

• S&P 500 (^GSPC):
  Down 2.96% on Nov 20 → Up 1.03% on Nov25 → Closed at 6,765.89 (Nov25).
• Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC):
  Down4.25% on Nov20 → Up0.98% on Nov25 → Closed at 23,025.59.
• Russell2000 (^RUT):
  Down2.55% on Nov20 → Up2.00% on Nov25 → Outperformed large caps with a 2.72% gain on Nov21.
  [0]

Top performers on November25:

• Energy:
  +1.76% (led by supply concerns and defensive positioning).
• Consumer Defensive:
  +1.31% (safe-haven demand amid deficit worries).
  Worst performer:
  Healthcare:
  -0.11% (profit-taking after recent gains).
  [0]

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1. Record October Deficit:
   
   The US posted a $284 billion deficit in October (10% higher YoY), driven by:
   • Delayed reporting due to the federal shutdown.
   • Shift of $105 billion in November benefit payments to October.
   • Record tariff revenues (offset by higher spending).
     [1][2]

2. Dogecoin’s Decline:
   • Down48% YTD (as of Nov19) → 3.81% drop on Nov25.
   • First DOGE ETF launched with zero inflows → Broke historical rally patterns tied to Elon Musk announcements.
     [3][5]

3. CME Trading Halt:
   
   Futures/options trading halted on Nov24 due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers → Affected stocks, currencies, and commodity markets.
   [4]

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• Dogecoin (DOGE):
  -3.81% (Nov25) → Trading below $0.15 → ETF launch failed to reverse downward trend.
• Energy Sector:
  +1.76% (Nov25) → Outperformed all sectors amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.
• Small Caps (Russell2000):
  +2.00% (Nov25) → Rebounded strongly from deficit-induced selloff.

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1. Treasury Yields:
   Monitor 10-year yield reaction to deficit news (potential upward pressure on borrowing costs).
2. Dogecoin:
   Watch for ETF inflow updates and Musk-related announcements.
3. CME Infrastructure:
   Check for any recurrence of cooling issues ahead of today’s trading.

• S&P500:
  Resistance at6,831 (Nov26 high) → Support at6,783 (Nov26 low).
• DOGE:
  Support at$0.15 → Resistance at$0.17.

• Further deficit concerns could weigh on bonds and equities.
• Dogecoin’s technical weakness may lead to additional declines.
• CME outage recurrence risk for futures markets.

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Disclaimer:

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.

Generated:

November28,2025 (Pre-Market)

Source:

Ginlix Market Analysis Team