NVIDIA Q3 FY26 Earnings Analysis: Strong Results Amid Mixed Market Sentiment

NVIDIA’s Q3 FY26 earnings delivered record results with $57.01B in revenue (up 62% YoY) and $1.30 EPS [3]. Despite these strong figures, the stock experienced a 14.03% drop over 15 trading days (Nov 3–21,2025) [2], reflecting mixed market sentiment. The Tech sector underperformed on Nov23,2025 (up only 0.15% vs Energy’s +1.77%) [5], contributing to short-term pressure. Reddit discussions highlight conflicting views: bearish arguments focus on customer concentration risk, high valuation, and macro factors (inflation/rates), while bullish perspectives emphasize long-term AI growth and analyst consensus [7].

Cross-domain connections reveal macroeconomic factors (inflation/rates) could impact GPU demand if interest rates remain high [7]. Customer concentration risk (unconfirmed claim of $33B from 4 customers [7]) underscores potential vulnerability to major customer order changes. AI growth opportunities are offset by emerging competition from Chinese chips (e.g., Zhonghao Xinying’s claimed 1.5x faster chip [6]) and Peter Thiel’s sale of his entire NVDA stake [6]. Critical info gaps include unverified customer concentration data and missing detailed accounting metrics [3,7].

• Risks
  : Customer concentration (if unconfirmed claim holds), competition from domestic Chinese chips [6], macroeconomic headwinds (inflation/rates [7]), Peter Thiel’s full stake sale [6].
• Opportunities
  : Strong AI demand driven by Blackwell chip ramp [0], analyst consensus target of $250 (38.7% upside [3]), supply lagging demand for AI chips [6].

• Key Metrics
  : Revenue ($57.01B YoY+62%), EPS ($1.30), Market Cap ($4.39T), 15-day price drop (-14.03%), Analyst Target ($250) [1,2,3].
• Info Gaps
  : Unverified customer concentration claim [7], missing accounting data (Tool4 error).
• Monitor
  : Blackwell production progress [0], HBM supply negotiations [6], Chinese chip adoption [6], macroeconomic reports [7].