NVIDIA Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis & Reddit Discussion: Valuation vs Business Fundamentals

On November 19, 2025 (EST), NVIDIA (NVDA) reported record Q3 FY2026 financial results:

• Revenue: $57 billion (up 62% YoY, 22% QoQ), beating consensus estimates of $55 billion [1].
• Net Income: $31.8 billion (up 59% YoY) [1].
• EPS: $1.30 (up 60% YoY) [1].
• Next Quarter Guidance: ~$65 billion revenue with 75% gross margin [1,9].

The Reddit discussion (Event Timestamp: 2025-11-28 02:29 EST) debated:

1. Forward P/E valuation (claimed ~24x for FY2027).
2. Competition risks from AMD, Intel, and Chinese firms eroding NVIDIA’s moat.
3. Irrational narrative shifts based on recent price movements.
4. Confusion over NVIDIA’s fiscal year timing (FY2026 vs calendar year).

• Short-Term Price Movement
  : NVDA closed at $180.26 on November 28, 2025, up 1.37% from the previous day, but down 10.33% month-over-month [2]. The tech sector was the 8th best performer (up 0.15%) on the same day [3].
• Analyst Sentiment
  : Consensus price target is $250 (38.7% upside from current levels), with 73.4% of analysts rating “Buy” [2]. Morningstar increased its fair value estimate to $240, citing strong AI demand [10].
• Long-Term Confidence
  : NVIDIA’s $500 billion backlog for Blackwell/Rubin chips through 2026 (mentioned in Q3 FY2026 earnings transcript) signals sustained demand [9].

1. Valuation Metrics
   :
   • Current TTM P/E: 44.62x [2].
   • Forward P/E (FY2027): ~26.8x (based on current price $180.26 and average consensus EPS of $6.73 [10]), aligning with the Reddit claim of ~26x forward P/E for FY2027.
   • ROE: 99.24% (Zacks) [12], correcting the earlier company overview tool’s error (1.04% was likely a typo).

2. Financial Performance
   :
   • Data Center Revenue: $51 billion (66% YoY growth, 89% of total revenue) [1,9], driven by Blackwell chip ramp.
   • Gross Margin: 73.6% (non-GAAP) [1], with guidance for mid-70s in FY2027 [9].

3. Competition Landscape
   :
   • NVIDIA maintains ~80% AI chip market share in Q3 2025 [7].
   • AMD’s MI300 series is used by 7 of the top 10 AI companies, but its Q3 data center revenue ($4.3 billion) is a fraction of NVIDIA’s $51 billion [7,8].

• Unavailable Data
  : Exact sales figures for AMD’s MI300 series (to quantify competition impact) and NVIDIA’s China revenue breakdown (amid export controls) [7,9].
• Contextual Nuances
  :
  • Fiscal Year Clarification: NVIDIA’s FY2026 spans from January 2025 to January 2026, with Q3 ending October 26,2025 [1], explaining calendar year confusion.
  • Narrative Shifts: Recent 10% month-over-month price drop [2] may have fueled “bubble” talk, but long-term analyst consensus remains bullish.

1. Competition Risk
   : AMD’s MI300 series and Google’s TPUs (Meta is in talks to adopt TPUs) could erode NVIDIA’s market share [7,12].
2. Valuation Risk
   : Current TTM P/E (44.62x) is higher than the semiconductor industry average; premium may not be sustainable if growth slows.
3. Regulatory Risk
   : China export controls limit NVIDIA’s sales to the region, a small portion of Q3 data center revenue [9].
4. Supply Chain Risks
   : NVIDIA’s ability to meet the $500 billion backlog depends on supply chain resilience [9].

• AMD’s MI300 sales growth in Q4 2025.
• NVIDIA’s FY2027 EPS growth (consensus 46.1% [10]).
  -进展 on Meta’s TPU adoption deal.

[1] Web Search: NVDA Q3 FY2026 earnings report
[2] Internal Database: NVDA Real-Time Quote & Company Overview
[3] Internal Database: Sector Performance
[7] Web Search: AMD MI300 sales & NVDA market share
[8] Web Search: AMD Q3 FY2025 earnings
[9] Earnings Transcript: NVDA Q3 FY2026
[10] Web Search: NVDA FY2027 EPS estimates
[12] Web Search: NVDA ROE
[13] Web Search: Meta TPU talks
[14] Web Search: Morningstar fair value
[15] Web Search: StockAnalysis EPS estimates

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.