AI Market Trend Analysis: Earnings Growth vs. Bubble Concerns

2025-11-28

On 2025-11-28, Lou Basenese of Prairie Operating Co. stated in a YouTube short that the AI trend is supported by “tremendous earnings growth” not seen during the dot-com era, adding that if AI is a bubble, “it’s not done inflating yet” [User-provided event]. Attempts to verify Basenese’s financial background or Prairie Operating Co.’s AI research via web searches yielded no relevant results [web_search tool outputs].

On 2025-11-28, the U.S. Technology sector rose +0.15% [0]. Major AI-related stocks showed mixed but mostly positive performance:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): +1.37%
• Microsoft (MSFT): +1.78%
• Alphabet (GOOG): -1.04% [0]

The Nasdaq Composite closed up +0.8% that day, driven by AI players like AppLovin (APP) which surged +5.5% [1].

AI-focused stocks have delivered exceptional long-term growth:

• NVDA’s 3-year return is +1038%, MSFT +100%, GOOG +232% [0].
  Q3 2025 earnings confirm strong fundamentals:
• The top5 U.S. tech companies beat EPS estimates by an average of11.2% and reported18.6% YoY revenue growth [3].
• The IT sector overall saw 40% EPS growth in Q3, with90% of companies beating revenue estimates [4].

Basenese’s claim about earnings-driven growth aligns with data—BlackRock notes AI’s performance is “driven more by earnings than multiple expansion” [4], contrasting with the dot-com era’s valuation-revenue disconnect.

##3. Key Data Extraction

• Q32025 Revenue: NVDA ($57.01B), MSFT ($77.67B), GOOG ($102.35B) [0].
• IT Sector Q3 EPS Growth: 40% [4].
• Palantir (PLTR) Q4 Guidance:61% sequential revenue growth [5].

• NVDA: $180.26 (+1.37%)
• MSFT: $485.50 (+1.78%)
• GOOG: $320.28 (-1.04%)
• Nasdaq Composite: +0.8% [1,0].

• Volume: NVDA (181.8M), MSFT (25.66M), GOOG (29.73M) [0].
• Market Cap: NVDA ($4.39T), MSFT ($3.61T), GOOG ($3.87T) [0].

##4. Affected Instruments

• Direct Stocks: NVDA, MSFT, GOOG (core AI players); AppLovin (APP) [0,1].
• Related Sectors: Technology (+0.15% on11/28), Cloud Computing (MSFT Azure, GOOG Cloud), Semiconductors (NVDA) [0].
• Upstream/Downstream: Utilities (impacted by AI data center power demand—stocks surged then crashed as deals stalled) [2].

##5. Context for Decision-Makers

• Need to verify Lou Basenese’s financial expertise or Prairie Operating Co.’s AI research (no relevant results from web searches).

While earnings growth supports bullish AI views, high valuations (NVDA:44x P/E, MSFT:34x, GOOG:31x) [0] and regulatory risks (data privacy, antitrust) warrant caution. Peripheral sectors like utilities face challenges scaling energy supply for AI data centers [2].

• Users should be aware that high valuations of AI stocks may increase volatility in response to earnings misses or regulatory changes [0].
• This development raises concerns about utility sectors’ ability to meet AI’s energy demands, which could impact data center operations and related AI companies [2].

• Q42025 earnings (especially Palantir’s61% growth guidance) [5].
• Regulatory developments in AI (e.g., privacy laws, antitrust actions).
• Utility sector’s progress in scaling energy supply for AI data centers [2].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (tools: get_sector_performance, get_company_overview, get_stock_realtime_quote)
[1] Nasdaq, “Stock Market News for Nov28,2025” (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-market-news-nov-28-2025)
[2] Bloomberg, “Why US Utility Stocks Are Falling After the AI Power Surge” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-28/ai-boom-sends-utility-stocks-soaring-then-crashing-as-data-center-deals-stall)
[3] YCharts, “Q32025 Earnings Analysis: Tech Sector Performance” (https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/q3-2025-tech-earnings-analysis/)
[4] BlackRock, “Q32025 U.S. earnings highlights” (https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/q3-earnings-equity-market-outlook)
[5] Yahoo Finance, “AI Earnings Roundup: NVIDIA & Palantir” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-earnings-roundup-nvidia-palantir-161500924.html)

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data is as of2025-11-28 and subject to change.
No investment recommendations are made; this report focuses on factual market context and risk identification.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. AI investments carry high volatility and regulatory risks.
All external sources are Tier1 (Bloomberg, Nasdaq, BlackRock) or Tier2 (YCharts, Yahoo Finance) per the credibility hierarchy.
Speaker background verification attempts were unsuccessful; users should independently assess the source’s credibility.
Real-time data reflects closed market conditions as of2025-11-2808:29 ET.