Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Sell-Off Analysis: Competition, Regulatory Risks, and Hidden Demand Dynamics

According to a Reddit post, Google DeepMind researcher and TPU engineer Amir Yazdan stated on X that the recent Nvidia (NVDA) stock sell-off reflects investor misunderstanding of AI hardware demand. Key discussion points include bearish short-term views due to macroeconomic conditions, claims of Yazdan’s bias, investor ignorance, hidden B2B demand, and long-term competition risks. Yazdan emphasized that high-end GPU demand remains strong for AI model development [4].

NVDA experienced a 7.81% drop on 2025-11-20 to $180.64 with 343.5M shares traded [0], followed by partial recovery but ongoing volatility.

• Competition
  : Google’s TPUs are a threat—Meta exploring adoption led to a $250B NVDA market cap loss [1].
• Regulatory
  : China blocked ByteDance from using NVDA chips [3].
• China’s Domestic Chips
  : Baidu’s 5-year Kunlun chip roadmap aims to replace NVDA GPUs [3], with China claiming 14nm chips rival NVDA’s 4nm [1].

NVDA is down ~12% in November [4], while Alphabet is up ~15% [4]. The Technology sector grew modestly (+0.14951%) [2].

• Volatility: $169.55-$196.00 10-day range [0].
• Volume: Peak of 346.93M shares on 2025-11-21 [0].
• Bookings: $500B in advanced chip bookings through 2026 [4].

Technology lags defensive sectors like Energy, indicating macro caution [2].

1. Exact NVDA revenue from China.
2. Meta’s TPU adoption scale/timeline.
3. Extent of hidden B2B demand.
4. Performance gap between China’s 14nm and NVDA’s Blackwell chips.

• Bullish
  : $500B bookings and hidden B2B demand [4].
• Bearish
  : Competition and regulatory barriers [1][3].

1. Competition
   : Google TPUs and China’s chips threaten market share [1][3].
2. Regulatory
   : China’s ByteDance block reduces demand [3].
3. AI Bubble
   : Potential burst could contract demand [Event Content].

• Meta’s TPU progress [1].
• China’s chip milestones [3].
• NVDA’s performance lead [1].