Analysis of Reddit Discussion on Exiting Declining Stocks: CPALL.BK and TKN.BK

This analysis synthesizes insights from a Reddit discussion (2025-11-28 UTC) [3] and market data for two Thai stocks: CPALL.BK (convenience stores and agribusiness) and TKN.BK (seaweed snacks). A Reddit user sold TKN.BK after discovering alleged insider trading and earnings manipulation charges against its founder, while retaining CPALL.BK despite its prolonged decline. TKN.BK has experienced a 50.18% drop over one year [0], whereas CPALL.BK shows a -17.45% total return over two years (-9.14% annualized) [1]. The discussion highlights key arguments: exit declining stocks with company-specific issues (like fraud), hold cyclical/seasonal stocks, or never exit regardless of decline.

1. Regulatory Concerns Drive Decisions
   : The user’s decision to sell TKN.BK aligns with the steep performance decline and alleged regulatory issues, emphasizing the impact of company-specific risks on investor behavior.
2. Seasonal Trends as a Holding Factor
   : Some users advocate holding cyclical stocks like CPALL.BK due to perceived December bullishness, though this claim lacks verification from SET index historical data.
3. Fundamentals Matter
   : The discussion underscores the importance of understanding a stock’s fundamentals (e.g., company management, regulatory status) before deciding to exit or hold.

• TKN.BK
  : Unconfirmed allegations of insider trading and earnings manipulation by the founder could lead to further value erosion if verified [3]. The stock’s 50.18% one-year decline indicates significant investor confidence loss [0].
• CPALL.BK
  : Prolonged two-year negative return (-17.45%) warrants monitoring of its financial health, especially missing net income data for Q3 2025 [1]. The seasonal trend claim (December bullishness) is unsubstantiated without SET index data.

• If seasonal trends for Thai stocks (SET index) hold true in December, CPALL.BK may see a short-term recovery, but this requires data validation.
• CPALL.BK’s stable revenue from its 7-Eleven franchise (242.6B THB in Q3 2025 [2]) could provide a foundation for future growth if operational efficiency improves.

• TKN.BK
  : One-year return of -50.18% (open $8.15, close $4.06), average daily volume of 3.11M [0]. User sold all shares due to alleged founder charges [3].
• CPALL.BK
  : Two-year total return of -17.45% (-9.14% annualized) [1], Q3 2025 revenue of 242.6B THB [2]. User held shares despite decline [3].
• Information Gaps
  : Need to confirm TKN.BK founder charges, CPALL.BK’s Q3 net income, and SET index’s December historical returns to validate claims.