Weekly Recap & Weekend Outlook - November 28, 2025

The S&P 500 closed the week up ~2.7% (four trading days ending Nov 28) amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Key themes included Fed policy optimism, AI-driven retail activity during Black Friday/Cyber Monday, and a surge in Intel shares on Apple deal rumors. The Russell 2000 outperformed, indicating small-cap strength, while energy led sector gains. The market extended gains for five consecutive days, signaling strong bullish sentiment.

• S&P 500
  : +2.7% week-to-date (6,849.08 vs. 6,705.11 on Nov 24) [0]
• Nasdaq Composite
  : +2.2% (23,365.69 vs. 22,872.01) [0]
• Dow Jones
  : +1.3% (47,671.22 vs. 46,448.28) [0]
• Russell 2000
  : +3.4% → Small-cap outperformance [0]

• Leaders
  : Energy (+1.14% Friday, weekly +~3.2%) [0], Consumer Defensive (+0.9% Friday)
• Laggards
  : Financial Services (+0.01% Friday) [0]

• Five straight days of gains [8]
• Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator flashed a buy signal, indicating strong market breadth [3]

1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations
   :
   • Allies of Fed Chair Powell laid groundwork for a December rate cut [1].
   • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed the move, citing a vulnerable labor market [2].
   • Markets priced in an ~80% chance of a 25bps cut [7].

2. Retail AI Adoption
   :
   • Black Friday/Cyber Monday featured AI tools: Target’s ChatGPT integration, Walmart’s AI-driven deals [3].
   • Retailers aimed to boost sales amid inflationary pressures.

3. Intel-Apple Deal Rumors
   :
   • Intel shares surged 10.3% on reports of an Apple deal for its 3nm chips [4,0].

4. After-Hours Activity
   :
   • Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.1% after-hours, continuing a recent downtrend [8].
   • Microsoft (MSFT) gained 1.3% on strong cloud and AI momentum [7].

• Intel (INTC)
  : +10.3% → Apple chip deal rumors [0,4]
• Nvidia (NVDA)
  : -2.1% after-hours → Profit-taking [8]
• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : +1.3% → Cloud/AI strength [7]
• Deere & Co. (DE)
  : -5.7% → Fourth-quarter earnings miss [5]
• Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  : +1.2% Friday → Energy sector outperformance [0]

• Dec 1
  : ISM Manufacturing Index
• Dec3
  : ISM Services Index
• Dec5
  : ADP Private Payrolls [7]

• Geopolitics
  : Russia-Ukraine peace talks updates [6]
• Corporate
  : Limited after-hours earnings (White Gold Corp., Power Metallic Mines) [1]

• S&P500
  : Resistance at 6,900, Support at 6,750 [0]
• Hedging
  : Investors may hedge ahead of next week’s data; option expiration flows could impact short-term moves [4]

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] WSJ: Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening for December Rate Cut → https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-powell-december-e9207386
[2] WSJ: Fed’s Daly Backs December Rate Cut → https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/feds-daly-backs-december-rate-cut-citing-vulnerable-labor-market-07a497b6
[3] Axios: AI is taking over Cyber Monday → https://www.axios.com/2025/11/28/cyber-monday-deals-2025-walmart-amazon-target-sales
[4] Investopedia: Intel Soars Amid Apple Deal Rumors → https://www.investopedia.com/s-and-p-500-gains-and-losses-today-intel-soars-amid-apple-deal-rumors-eli-lilly-stock-slides-intc-lly-11858650
[5] Yahoo Finance: Deere & Co. Tumbles on Earnings Miss → https://finance.yahoo.com/news/company-news-nov-28-2025-072600316.html
[6] KITCO: Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks → https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2025-11-28/european-shares-clock-monthly-gains-fed-rate-cut-hopes
[7] WSJ: Week Ahead for FX, Bonds → https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-ism-adp-data-in-focus-as-fed-rate-cut-looks-likely-d98de199
[8] Yahoo Finance: Wall Street Rises for Fifth Straight Day → https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-184709068.html

This report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
Data as of November 28, 2025, 16:30 EST.