Thanksgiving 2025 Trading Week Analysis: Consumer Spending Stakes & Market Impact

On November 23, 2025 (EST), MarketWatch published an article highlighting the high stakes for U.S. stocks in the shortened Thanksgiving trading week, with consumer behavior emerging as a critical factor amid recent market volatility [4]. The report emphasized that the holiday shopping period (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) would serve as a key stress test for consumer sentiment, with implications for retail and related sectors.

• Index Performance
  : Over the 60 days leading up to November 28, major U.S. indices posted solid gains: S&P 500 (+4.9%), NASDAQ Composite (+6.89%), Dow Jones (+4.51%), and Russell 2000 (+4.62%) [0]. This upward trend reflects market optimism heading into the holiday season, though volatility remained moderate (0.70-1.28% daily standard deviation).
• Sector Leadership
  : Energy (+1.13%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.89%) sectors led gains as of November 28, indicating consumer prioritization of essentials amid economic uncertainty [1]. Consumer Cyclical sectors (+0.49%) underperformed relative to defensive peers, aligning with reports of cautious spending [3].

• Optimistic Forecasts
  : The National Retail Federation (NRF) projected a record 186.9 million consumers would participate in the Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday shopping period [3]. Adobe Digital Insights noted record online spending on Thanksgiving, driven by mobile shopping and AI-assisted deal-finding [3].
• Cautious Undertones
  : Forbes reported retailers are bracing for an uncertain season as consumers pull back on discretionary spending amid inflation fears [3]. OANDA highlighted that economic uncertainty is reshaping holiday habits, with shoppers prioritizing discounts and essentials [3].

• Directly Impacted Stocks
  : Retailers (Amazon, Walmart, Target), e-commerce platforms (Shopify), logistics providers (UPS, FedEx).
• Related Sectors
  : Consumer Cyclical (discretionary goods), Consumer Defensive (essentials), Technology (AI/online shopping tools), Energy (fuel costs for deliveries).
• Supply Chain
  : Upstream (manufacturers of holiday goods) and downstream (last-mile delivery services) providers.

• Actual Black Friday/Cyber Monday spending data (vs. forecasts)
• Impact of Amazon’s global labor protests on delivery timelines and Q4 earnings
• Inflation’s effect on spending across income brackets

• Bullish
  : Record shopper forecasts and strong online Thanksgiving spending suggest robust holiday demand.
• Bearish
  : Consumer pullback on discretionary items and labor disruptions pose risks to retail earnings.

• Post-holiday sales reports from major retailers
• Labor protest resolution at Amazon facilities
• Inflation data (CPI) for November

• Labor Disruptions
  : Amazon workers in over 30 countries launched “Make Amazon Pay” protests targeting working conditions and AI expansion [2]. This raises concerns about supply chain delays that could impact holiday sales and customer satisfaction.
• Consumer Spending Shortfalls
  : Forbes’ report of consumers pulling back amid uncertainty [3] may lead to retail earnings missing expectations.
• Inflation Risks
  : OANDA’s analysis of inflation fears shaping spending habits [3] suggests that higher prices could erode purchasing power for discretionary goods.

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
All data is as of November 28, 2025, unless otherwise specified.