Market Overview Report: November 29, 2025

The U.S market is priced for an 85% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, with mega-cap tech stocks remaining dominant despite mixed sector performance. Bullish arguments (strong earnings, low Fear & Greed index) counter bearish concerns (rate cut irrationality, stagflation risk), while rapid national debt growth adds a neutral undercurrent.

• Sector Leadership
  : Energy (+1.14%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.89%) led gains, while Healthcare (-0.03%) and Financials (-0.001%) lagged [0].
• Mega-Cap Tech
  : Alphabet (GOOGL: $320.18, +0.07%, $3.86T cap), Microsoft (MSFT: $492.01, +1.34%, $3.66T cap), and NVIDIA (NVDA: $176.51, -2.08%, $4.3T cap) maintained their market dominance [0].
• Sentiment
  : CNN Fear & Greed Index stood at 18.29 (extreme fear territory), contradicting claims of market euphoria [1].
• Earnings Breadth
  : 83% of S&P 500 companies beat Q3 earnings estimates, with a 10.7% YoY growth rate [3].

1. Rate Cut Expectations
   : CME FedWatch Tool shows an 85% probability of a 25bps rate cut in December, driving market sentiment despite debates on the rationality of such expectations [2].
2. Strong Earnings Fundamentals
   : S&P500 Q3 earnings growth of 10.7% YoY (with 83% beats) supports bullish narratives of solid corporate performance [3].
3. Rapid National Debt Growth
   : U.S national debt hit $38.09T (up $2.18T YoY and $1T in 82 days), fueling arguments of the market being “rigged” higher due to debt expansion [4].
4. Stagflation Risk
   : October inflation expectations (3.2% YoY) and rising unemployment (4.3%) raise concerns of stagflation if rate cuts proceed without economic growth [5][6].

• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : Down 2.08% ($176.51) amid claims of AI trade overhyped, but still holds a $4.3T market cap [0].
• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : Up1.34% ($492.01) contradicting AI trade losing steam narrative [0].
• Energy Sector
  : Led gains (+1.14%) indicating potential rotation away from tech [0].

• Upcoming Catalysts
  : Fed December policy meeting (rate cut decision), Q4 earnings season kickoff, and monthly inflation data releases.
• Technical Levels
  : NVIDIA (NVDA) is near its 52-week high ($212.19) but recent dip warrants monitoring; Microsoft (MSFT) approaches its 52-week high ($555.45) [0].
• Risks
  : Stagflation (high inflation + rising unemployment), debt sustainability concerns, and Fed surprising markets with no rate cut.
• Sentiment Watch
  : CNN Fear & Greed Index direction—will it remain in extreme fear or rise as rate cut expectations solidify [1]?