Meta’s Consideration of Google TPUs: Market Impact on GOOG, NVDA, and META

On November 24, 2025, Meta Platforms (META) announced talks to deploy Google’s TPUs in its data centers, leading to immediate market reactions: GOOG rose ~2% in after-hours trading, NVDA fell ~2.05%, and META gained ~2.26% [0,1,2,3]. GOOG’s 6-month rally of 85.91% (from $171.30 to $318.47) reflects growing confidence in its AI chip capabilities [0]. NVDA’s 80% market share in AI accelerators is challenged by custom chips like GOOG’s TPUs, though NVDA maintains a 5x tokens-per-dollar advantage over TPU v6e [5]. Meta’s potential shift could reduce demand for NVDA’s H100/B200 chips and AMD’s MI300X (AMD dropped 9% on the news) [4].

1. GOOG’s AI Credibility
   : The Meta talks solidify GOOG as a viable alternative to NVDA in AI chips, supporting long-term growth.
2. NVDA’s Competitive Risk
   : Custom chips from cloud providers (GOOG, AWS) pose a long-term threat to NVDA’s market share.
3. Meta’s Cost-Benefit Tradeoff
   : TPUs could boost Meta’s EPS via cost savings, but transitioning from NVDA’s CUDA ecosystem may incur significant costs [4].
4. FOMO Dynamics
   : Reddit users reported FOMO to buy GOOG shares, highlighting potential overvaluation if the deal fails [6].

• GOOG
  : Opportunity to expand AI chip revenue, but risk of overvaluation from FOMO-driven buying [0,6].
• NVDA
  : Risk of market share erosion from custom chips; need to innovate to maintain edge [5].
• META
  : Opportunity for cost savings, but transition risk from CUDA to TPU architecture [4].
• Investor Risks
  : Unconfirmed deal status and unclear deployment volume mean caution is advised [6].

Critical data points:

• GOOG market cap: $3.86T; NVDA: $4.30T; META: $1.63T [0].
• GOOG’s 6-month gain:85.91% [0].
• NVDA’s 1-day loss:2.08% [2].
• Key uncertainties: Deal confirmation, deployment volume, transition costs [4,6].