NVIDIA Valuation & TPU Competition: Meta's Potential Switch and Market Impact Analysis

The Reddit discussion [5] on NVIDIA’s (NVDA) investment case amid Google TPU competition aligns with market data showing NVDA’s 14.75% monthly stock decline [0] following news of Meta (META) in advanced talks to switch to TPUs [1]. This has erased ~$250B in NVDA’s market cap [1], while Google (GOOG) shares rose 2.1% [1]. NVDA’s current P/E ratio of ~43.69 [0] is lower than the Reddit debate’s ~50 estimate, and 73.4% of analysts rate NVDA as Buy with a $250 consensus target [0].

Cross-domain correlations include Meta’s switch impacting both NVDA and GOOG; NVDA’s $350B order backlog [3] mitigates short-term customer churn risks. Bank of America estimates NVDA’s market share may drop from 85% to 75% [4], but margin erosion (from 53% to 30% per Reddit [5]) is a larger concern than market share loss.

: Margin erosion due to TPU competition [5], market share decline [4], short-term volatility (2.59% daily std dev [0]). : Analyst consensus upside (41.6% [0]), backlog conversion [3], Blackwell/Rubin chip launches to maintain cost-effectiveness [5].

Critical data points: NVDA’s current price ($176.51 [0]), P/E ratio (~43.69 [0]), net profit margin (53.01% [0]), order backlog ($350B [3]). Meta’s TPU switch is unconfirmed, with potential 10% revenue impact [2]. NVDA outperformed AMD (6.74% vs 1.76% monthly drop [0]).