Black Friday 2025 Online Sales Analysis Report

2025-11-29 12:29:42 (EST)

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On Black Friday 2025, U.S. online sales reached a record

(up 9.1% YoY), per final data from Adobe Analytics [1]. This milestone sparked debate about the drivers of growth, with key arguments including:

• Inflation and price increases (not real volume growth)
• Rising credit card debt
• Disproportionate spending by the top 10% of households (reflecting wealth inequality)
• Concerns about post-holiday spending sustainability

External data confirms these debates: Salesforce reported U.S. Black Friday sales of

(up 3% YoY), but order volumes fell by2% while average selling prices (ASP) rose by7%—indicating price hikes contributed to growth [2]. Moody’s Analytics noted the top10% of U.S. households accounted for in Q22025 [3].

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• Retail Stocks:
  Amazon (AMZN) closed up1.75% on2025-11-29, aligning with strong online sales momentum [0]. Shopify (SHOP) fell0.3%—despite reporting $6.2 billion in global sales—suggesting mixed investor sentiment [0][2].
• Sectors:
  The Consumer Cyclical sector (directly tied to retail) rose0.49% on the day, outperformed by Energy (+1.13%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.89%) [0].
• Sentiment:
  Mixed—while sales records are positive, the lack of volume growth (per Salesforce) and wealth inequality concerns tempered enthusiasm.

• Cyber Monday Watch:
  Adobe projects Cyber Monday sales to hit
  $14.2 billion
  (up6.3% YoY), which will test if momentum continues [1].
• Post-Holiday Risks:
  The Reddit debate about post-holiday spending is critical—if consumers cut back after Black Friday/Cyber Monday, retail stocks may face pressure [0].

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##3. Key Data Extraction

Metric	Value	Source
Black Friday Online Sales (Adobe)	$11.8B (+9.1% YoY)	[1]
U.S. Black Friday Sales (Salesforce)	$18B (+3% YoY)	[2]
Salesforce Order Volume Change	-2% YoY	[2]
Salesforce ASP Change	+7% YoY	[2]
Top10% Household Spending Share (Q225)	48%	[3]
AMZN Price Change (2025-11-29)	+1.75%	[0]
SHOP Price Change (2025-11-29)	-0.3%	[0]

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##4. Affected Instruments

• Amazon (AMZN):
  Positive (online retail leader, benefited from record sales).
• Shopify (SHOP):
  Mixed (global sales growth but underperformance vs AMZN).
• Other Online Retailers:
  Likely positive (e.g., Walmart, Target—no real-time data available).

• Consumer Cyclical:
  Moderate gain (0.49%)—reflects cautious optimism about retail.
• E-commerce Technology:
  Mixed (SHOP down, but AI-driven traffic up 805% per Adobe [2]).

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##5. Context for Decision-Makers

1. Credit Card Debt:
   No direct data on Black Friday-specific credit usage—need to monitor upcoming consumer credit reports (e.g., Federal Reserve G.19).
2. Post-Holiday Spending:
   Adobe’s Cyber Monday forecast is strong, but December retail sales data will confirm sustainability.
3. Wealth Inequality Impact:
   Track if high-income households continue spending into Q12026.

• Cyber Monday actual sales figures (due 2025-12-02).
• December retail sales reports (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Consumer credit delinquency rates (Federal Reserve).

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##6. Risk Considerations

1. Unsustainable Growth:
   Sales growth is driven by price increases (ASP +7%) rather than volume (-2% YoY). This may not sustain retail momentum if inflation eases or consumers cut back [2].
   • Warning:
     Users should be aware that the record sales do not reflect increased purchasing volume, which could lead to a pullback in retail stocks if post-holiday spending weakens.
2. Credit Card Delinquencies:
   Rising delinquencies (mentioned in KIRO7 News [4]) suggest consumers may struggle to repay Black Friday purchases, leading to reduced future spending.
3. Wealth Inequality Vulnerability:
   The top10% driving sales means any downturn affecting high-income households (e.g., stock market correction) could hit retail hard [3].

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[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (sector performance, real-time quotes, market overview).
[1] Reuters: U.S. Black Friday online sales hit record $11.8 billion, Adobe reports (https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-consumers-spent-118-billion-black-friday-says-adobe-analytics-2025-11-29/).
[2] Forbes: Black Friday Data Shows Online Sales Strong, Store Results Mixed (https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanverdon/2025/11/29/black-friday-data-shows-online-sales-strong-store-results-mixed/).
[3] Investing.com: Black Friday consumers go online, rather than stand in line (https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/the-black-friday-paradox-more-shoppers-fewer-dollars-4381588/).
[4] KIRO7 News: Shoppers spend billions on Black Friday (https://www.kiro7.com/news/business/shoppers-spend/LUQ6MOWPBA753F2SDJM52Z27DM/).

Disclaimer:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
**Last Updated:**2025-11-2917:45 UTC.