Black Friday 2025 Record Online Sales: Drivers, Risks, and Sustainability Analysis

On November 29, 2025 (EST), Adobe Analytics reported U.S. Black Friday online sales reached a record $11.8 billion, marking a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1][2][9]. The company also forecasted $5.5 billion and $5.9 billion in online sales for the following Saturday and Sunday, respectively [10]. Salesforce estimated U.S. Black Friday online sales at $18 billion (part of $79 billion in global online sales) [3]. The event sparked discussions on Reddit, with users debating whether the record sales reflected real growth or were driven by inflation, credit card debt, and wealth inequality, as well as concerns about post-holiday spending sustainability [9].

Short-term, the strong sales figures are likely to boost sentiment for e-commerce platforms and luxury retail brands, as these sectors benefited from the record online spending [1][2]. However, long-term sustainability is questionable:

• Inflation vs. Real Growth
  : The 9.1% YoY online sales growth is partially offset by October 2025 consumer price inflation of 2.68% (per Numerator, since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the official October CPI report) [4]. This suggests real growth of approximately 6.4% YoY, but inflation remains a contributing factor to nominal sales gains.
• Credit Debt Concerns
  : U.S. household debt hit a record $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, with average credit card debt per borrower rising to $6,523 [5]. Rising delinquencies (noted but not quantified in available data) raise risks of future spending pullbacks.
• Wealth Inequality
  : Moody’s chief economist highlighted that the U.S. economy relies on the “fortunes of the well-to-do” [6]. Bank of America analysis found inflation has outpaced wage growth for lower- and middle-income households since early 2025 [7], supporting Reddit claims that top earners are driving consumption. Forbes further noted the top 10% of U.S. households own 87% of the stock market, indicating a narrow base for spending growth [8].

• Sales Metrics
  : Adobe’s $11.8 billion online sales figure (9.1% YoY growth) confirms strong e-commerce performance [1][2]. Salesforce’s $18 billion U.S. online sales estimate underscores the scale of digital spending [3].
• Inflation
  : October’s 2.68% YoY inflation rate means nominal sales growth overstates real economic activity [4].
• Debt Levels
  : Record household debt ($18.6 trillion) and rising credit card balances signal financial strain for many consumers [5].
• Inequality
  : The concentration of spending power among top-income households limits the breadth of the recovery [6][7][8].

• Post-Holiday Spending
  : No data is available yet on post-Black Friday spending (e.g., Cyber Monday, December trends), which is critical to assessing whether the record sales reflect frontloading or sustained growth [9].
• Real Growth Verification
  : The absence of official October CPI data (due to federal government issues) means real sales growth estimates rely on alternative sources [4].
• Income Group Breakdown
  : Detailed data on Black Friday spending by income group is not available, making it hard to quantify how much of the growth comes from top earners [6][7].
• Delinquency Details
  : Exact credit card delinquency rates for Q3 2025 are not provided in available sources, limiting the assessment of debt risk severity [5].

• Debt Sustainability
  : Users should be aware that record household debt levels and rising credit card balances may significantly impact consumer spending in the near term [5].
• Narrow Spending Base
  : The reliance on top-income households to drive sales makes retail sectors vulnerable to any downturn in this group’s spending [6][7][8].
• Post-Holiday Frontloading
  : If Black Friday sales reflect frontloading of holiday purchases, post-holiday spending may decline, negatively affecting retail revenues [9].
• Key Metrics to Watch
  : Post-holiday sales figures, December CPI data (once released), credit card delinquency rates, and consumer confidence surveys.

[1] Yahoo Finance - Shoppers spend billions on Black Friday to snag holiday deals…
[2] Forbes - Black Friday Data Shows Online Sales Strong, Store Results Mixed
[3] Yahoo Finance - Shoppers spend billions on Black Friday to snag holiday…
[4] Yahoo Finance - Numerator October Consumer Price Index Reveals Prices for Everyday Goods Up 2.68% vs 2024
[5] Yahoo Finance - Household debt hits record $18.6T as delinquencies…
[6] Yahoo Finance - The economy is reliant on the ‘fortunes of the well-to-do’
[7] Yahoo Finance - Consumer spending in crosshairs as households feel…
[8] Yahoo Finance - The pain underlying U.S. GDP numbers goes beyond…
[9] User Input - Original event content and Reddit discussion
[10] User Input - Adobe Analytics Saturday/Sunday sales forecast