Black Friday 2025 Online Spending Record: Market Impact on E-Commerce Stocks

On November 29, 2025, Adobe Analytics reported that American consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, tracking over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites [1]. This milestone reflects strong consumer demand for online holiday shopping and marks a significant uptick in e-commerce activity.

The record online spending had a mixed but generally positive impact on key e-commerce players and related sectors:

1. Sector Performance
   : The Consumer Cyclical sector (which includes retail and e-commerce) rose 0.49% on the day, aligning with the surge in online shopping [0].

2. Individual Stock Movements
   :
   • Amazon (AMZN): Closed up 1.75% to $233.18, benefiting from its leading position in online retail and Black Friday deals (e.g., $274 iPad discounts) [0][2].
   • Walmart (WMT): Gained 1.29% to $110.51, reflecting its strong omnichannel presence and anticipation of Cyber Monday deals [0][4].
   • Shopify (SHOP): Bucked the trend with a 0.3% decline to $158.86, despite recent launches of small business financial tools—potentially due to lack of immediate Black Friday performance data for its merchant base [0][3].

3. Volume Trends
   : Trading volume for AMZN (20.13M) and WMT (9.82M) was below their 30-day averages (48.73M and16.94M, respectively), suggesting limited conviction in the day’s gains or post-holiday trading lulls [0].

1. Missing Performance Breakdown
   : No data is available on how much of the $11.8B spending came from AMZN, WMT, or Shopify merchants—critical for assessing direct impact on each player [1].
2. Shopify Merchant Performance
   : Current news on SHOP focuses on new financial tools, not Black Friday results for its merchant base [3]. Further investigation into Shopify’s BF sales metrics is needed to explain its stock decline.
3. Cyber Monday Momentum
   : The report does not include Cyber Monday spending projections, which are essential to gauge whether the Black Friday surge will be sustained.
4. Volume Conviction
   : Lower-than-average trading volume for AMZN and WMT raises questions about the durability of their price gains.

1. Shopify’s Outlier Performance
   : SHOP’s decline despite positive sector trends warrants close monitoring of its merchant Black Friday performance and customer retention metrics.
2. Volatility Risks
   : Below-average volume for AMZN and WMT may lead to price volatility if follow-through buying does not materialize in the coming days.
3. Cyber Monday Data
   : Decision-makers should track Cyber Monday spending figures to confirm whether the Black Friday momentum is a one-time event or part of a stronger holiday season trend.
4. Consumer Sentiment
   : Sustained demand for online shopping depends on ongoing consumer confidence—monitoring后续 holiday sales data will be critical for long-term projections.

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] TechCrunch - Black Friday sets online spending record of 11.8B, Adobe says | URL: https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/29/black-friday-sets-online-spending-record-of-11-8b-adobe-says/
[2] Macworld - If you want an iPad at Amazon’s $274 Black Friday blowout, act fast–stock is running out | URL: https://www.macworld.com/article/2989718/amazon-black-friday-ipad-a16-deal.html
[3] Small Business Trends - Shopify Unveils New Financial Tools to Empower Small Businesses’ Growth | URL: https://smallbiztrends.com/shopify-unveils-new-financial-tools-to-empower-small-businesses-growth/
[4] Economic Times - Cyber Monday 2025: Top deals on Amazon, Best Buy, Target, Walmart & Macy’s | URL: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/cyber-monday-2025-top-deals-on-amazon-best-buy-target-walmart-macys-heres-what-shoppers-need-to-know/articleshow/125662842.cms

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.