Black Friday 2025 Online Sales Record Analysis: Trends, Impact, and Risks

On November 29, 2025, U.S. Black Friday online sales reached a record $11.8B (9.1% YoY growth per Adobe Analytics). Salesforce noted average selling prices up by 7% (inflation impact) and units per transaction down by 2%. CNN estimated real growth at ~1% after inflation adjustment. Short-term market impact included modest gains for retail stocks: Walmart (WMT) +1.11%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.86%, Target (TGT) +0.38%. The Consumer Cyclical sector rose by 0.49% but lagged the Energy sector. Medium-term sentiment is mixed: Adobe forecasts Cyber Monday sales at $14.2B (record), while in-store traffic dropped by 3.6% YoY, indicating an ongoing shift to online shopping.

• AI Adoption
  : 45% of shoppers used AI tools (e.g., Amazon’s Rufus), driving efficiency in online shopping.
• Payment Trends
  : BNPL usage increased by 8.9% YoY, accounting for 6.3% of digital sales, with mobile devices contributing to 80.7% of BNPL sales.
• Wealth Inequality
  : Reddit discussions highlighted concerns that the top 10% of households are driving consumption, reflecting broader wealth disparities.
• Online Shift
  : In-store traffic decline (3.6% YoY) underscores the long-term trend of consumers preferring online channels.

• Inflation
  : Eroding real growth (only ~1% after adjustment) reduces the significance of record sales.
• Debt Concerns
  : Rising credit card debt and BNPL usage may lead to higher delinquencies in Q1 2026.
• Post-Holiday Underspending
  : Potential consumer cutbacks after Black Friday could impact retail revenues.

• AI Tools
  : Adoption of AI in shopping presents growth opportunities for tech-enabled retailers.
• Online Growth
  : Continued shift to online channels benefits e-commerce platforms and logistics providers.