2025 Black Friday Record Online Sales: Reddit Concerns & Market Impact Analysis

On November 29, 2025 (12:29 EST), a Reddit discussion highlighted concerns about the record $11.8 billion in U.S. Black Friday online sales reported by Adobe Analytics. Key arguments included sales growth driven by inflation, reliance on credit card debt, disproportionate spending by the top 10% of households, and skepticism about the sales indicating a strong economy with post-holiday spending seen as more critical. The sales figure was confirmed by Adobe Analytics (up 9.1% YoY) and Salesforce (total Black Friday spending of $18 billion, up 3% YoY, with luxury apparel/accessories as top categories) [1][2].

• Retail stocks showed positive movement on Black Friday (Nov 28): Amazon (AMZN) +0.86%, Walmart (WMT) +1.11%, Target (TGT) +0.38% [0].
• Sector performance: Consumer Cyclical (+0.49%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.89%) sectors outperformed on Nov 28, reflecting initial market optimism about holiday sales [0].

• Inflation
  : 1-year inflation expectations stood at 3.2% in October 2025 [5], suggesting nominal sales growth may overstate real consumption gains.
• Credit Risk
  : Record credit card debt ($1.233 trillion in Q3 2025) and high APRs (22.83% for interest-accruing accounts) could limit future consumer spending [3][4].
• Post-Holiday Slowdown
  : Reddit users noted post-holiday spending patterns are a better indicator of economic health, with potential underspending risks.

• Directly Impacted
  : Retail stocks (AMZN, WMT, TGT), luxury goods companies (per Salesforce data), Consumer Cyclical sector.
• Related
  : Credit card issuers (exposed to rising debt levels), e-commerce platforms (beneficiaries of online sales shift).

1. Real Growth
   : Exact real sales growth (adjusted for inflation) for Black Friday 2025.
2. Credit Share
   : Percentage of Black Friday sales financed by credit cards (vs. overall Q3 debt data).
3. Wealth Distribution
   : Data on spending contribution by income groups (top 10% vs. broader population).
4. Post-Holiday Trends
   : November/December full-month sales data to validate sustainability.

• Credit Risk
  : Record credit card debt with high APRs may lead to increased delinquencies (4.5% of total debt in delinquency as of Q3) [4], impacting both consumers and lenders.
• Inflation Erosion
  : Nominal sales growth may mask stagnant or declining real consumption.
• Post-Holiday Slowdown
  : If Black Friday sales pulled forward demand, retailers could face weaker December performance.

• November 2025 CPI data (to calculate real sales growth)
• December retail sales reports
• Credit card delinquency rates in Q4 2025
• Post-holiday inventory levels and discounting patterns

• Users should be aware that record credit card debt and elevated APRs may significantly impact future consumer spending capacity, potentially leading to a slowdown in retail sectors.
• This development raises concerns about inflation eroding the real value of sales growth, which warrants careful consideration when interpreting holiday sales data.
• Historical patterns suggest high debt levels combined with rising delinquencies typically lead to reduced consumer discretionary spending, which users should factor into their analysis.

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (internal tools: get_stock_daily_prices, get_sector_performance)
[1] DigitalCommerce360: Black Friday record cements it as an ecommerce sales day in 2025 (https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/black-friday-ecommerce-sales/)
[2] TechCrunch: Black Friday sets online spending record of $11.8B, Adobe says (https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/29/black-friday-sets-online-spending-record-of-11-8b-adobe-says/)
[3] LendingTree: 2025 Credit Card Debt Statistics (https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/credit-card-debt-statistics/)
[4] NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations… (https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20251105)
[5] TradingEconomics: US Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly in October (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-expectations/news/500373)
[event content] Reddit Discussion (Nov 29, 2025) – Tier3 Source (user-generated content)

Disclaimer

: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All decisions should be based on personal research and professional guidance.

Compliance Note

: No investment recommendations or financial guidance are provided in this report.

Time Context

: Data as of November30,2025.

Prepared By

: Financial Market Analyst (Ginlix AI)

Version

:1.0

Last Updated

:2025-11-30